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000 FXUS64 KMRX 301754 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 154 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 112 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
- Medium chance of light rain in the southern Pleateau and southern TN Valley on Sunday and Sunday night; most of the area stays dry.
- Dry and mild weather for the first couple of days next week.
- Increasing chances of rain and gusty mountain winds around mid week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 112 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
A mid/upper ridge over the area today will slowly shift east tonight, bringing increasing high clouds ahead of a shortwave trough over the Plains. Some light precip with this trough will enter our southwest counties late Saturday night to early Sunday morning. Moistening of the column will be from the top down, but most of the area will maintain a dry layer beneath ~700 mb. Only the southern Plateau and southern Valley are expected to see any measureable precip on Sunday (only a couple hundredths), with only virga or a few sprinkles elsewhere.
An increasingly amplified pattern develops early next week, with a ridge east of the MS River and a deep trough over the Plains. This will provide dry and mild weather for Monday and Tuesday, with rain chances returning Wednesday as the trough shifts east of the MS River. This has the potential to be a dynamic system, as it develops a negative tilt and favorable upper jet positioning to enhance QG forcing. A couple possible impacts to watch for with this system may be mountain wave winds, possibly starting Tuesday night, and a QLCS along the cold front Wednesday/Wednesday night (instability will be a limiting factor for the severe potential). At the least, it could bring some beneficial rainfall to help mitigate the drought conditions. Confidence this far out remains too low to highlight any specific impacts in the HWO, but the wording will be changed to "low proabaility".
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 112 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
High clouds will be increasing across the area tonight, and there may be some light NE winds, which should prevent fog development at the terminals. VFR conditions are forecast through this period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Chattanooga Airport, TN | 78 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20% |
| Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN | 78 ℉ | 53 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Oak Ridge, TN | 77 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Tri Cities Airport, TN | 76 ℉ | 48 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 51 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
MRX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...DGS