Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat continues through Wednesday, but dew points in the 60s should make it a little more tolerable than the past few days.

- Rounds of elevated wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest are expected throughout the week, but chances for surface smoke look low.

- Precip chances increase late Wednesday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The cold front has moved through, allowing for some relief from the oppressive Tds we saw early this morning. Northwesterly flow has brought elevated wildfire smoke back in from the Pacific Northwest. This will continue to be the case throughout at least the first half of the week. Models indicate that the majority of this smoke will remain elevated, but surface smoke isn't out of the question for far western Minnesota. Surface wise today, temperatures have once again reached 95 or better early this afternoon across southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin where a Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening. High temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal in the upper 80s/low 90s with a few low chances of spotty afternoon showers and storms. PoPs may need to be increased Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, but for now any impacts look minimal. NBM did introduce some 15-20% PoPs for Wednesday, which appears reasonable.

We don't see any widespread/organized precip chances until Thursday. A trough moving along the top of the ridge centered over the southern Rockies looks to dig southward across the Dakotas/Minnesota before potentially evolving into a cutoff low late in the week. Widespread rainfall and thunderstorms are expected late Thursday through Friday. With PWATs increasing to 1.6 to 1.8", we would expect these to hopefully bring the region some much needed precip. QPF totals range from a quarter inch for central Minnesota to an inch or better to the south. This system looks to meander around the western Ohio River Valley into the weekend, which would allow our western Wisconsin counties to see continued low shower chances into the weekend. Following the bulk of the rainfall Friday, temperatures do fall back into the mid 80s, but this looks to be shortlived once again with 90s possible early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

No major changes to the previous TAF period with the winds losing their gustiness from 00-02z, becoming light and variable overnight before becoming 5kts at 080-120. Skies should fill in with some 100 level SCT/BKN clouds approaching from decaying storms to the west halfway into the period, with some fair weather cu around 040-060 also possible after 18z. No significant weather and VFR for all sites.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR pm. Wind SW 5kts. THU...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR pm. Wind SW 5kts. FRI...MVFR/-SHRA, chc -TSRA early. Wind SE to NE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Blue Earth- Brown-Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin- Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele- Waseca-Washington-Watonwan. WI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dunn-Eau Claire- Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.