Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant fall weather expected Friday. - Chances for rain (30 to 50 percent) west and south of Milwaukee Friday evening, followed by 40 to 70 percent chances Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for all of southern WI. Rain chances then decrease Saturday evening. - A pair of occluding low pressure systems are expected to bring on and off rain Monday night into the late work week next week. Highest chances Monday night into Tuesday (60-80%).

SHORT TERM

Issued 1114 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Today (Friday) through Saturday night:

High pressure remains in place through today, gradually sliding eastward as low pressure develops in the central Plains. Expect early morning lows in the mid to upper 30s away from Lake Michigan, with patchy fog and frost in low-lying areas. Light and variable to calm winds expected through much of the day, becoming east-southeasterly as low pressure lifts gradually northward and warm frontogenesis develops across southern Wisconsin. High temperatures in the upper 50s to perhaps 60 degrees in the afternoon.

As warm frontogenesis begins to dominate the weather pattern this evening, expect scattered showers to spread west to east along and south of I-94. Very minimal MUCAPE around 150 J/kg near the WI/IL border may allow for an isolated bolt of lightning, but probabilities are very low (less than 10%). Overnight lows expected to remain in the 40s with plenty of cloud cover and increasing humidity. Rain showers will spread northward through the remainder of southern Wisconsin into early Saturday morning, gradually becoming more scattered to isolated as low pressure propagates northward and frontogenesis weakens across the region. With winds shifting to southeasterly and becoming breezy, expect highs in the upper 50s to low 60s even with plenty of cloud cover.

Last of the showers exit to the north into Saturday night, with winds becoming light and variable. Lows in the mid 40s expected.

MH

LONG TERM

Issued 1114 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Sunday through Friday:

Ridging remaining across Lake Michigan will keep the majority of southern Wisconsin dry on Sunday, with some potential for isolated showers with lingering moisture and WAA in the vicinity. Highs in the 60s are expected. Low pressure in the Plains deepens Sunday night as additional troughing propagates eastward over the Rockies and interacts with the surface low in the vicinity. This will lead to increasing southerly winds into Monday morning, leading to continued highs in the upper 60s. As low pressure deepens throughout Monday, it will eject into the northern Plains, bringing increasing rain chances (50-80%) to southern Wisconsin within the WAA region of the low. Low pressure continues to propagate northeastward into Minnesota by Tuesday morning, keeping southern Wisconsin within the WAA region and bringing continued rounds of rainfall (60-80% chances) throughout Monday night into Tuesday.

Uncertainty remains in the strength of low pressure, with the Euro indicating a stronger low and the GFS and Canadian indicating a stronger Northeast U.S. high preventing low pressure from continuing to propagate eastward and weakening its impacts. Regardless of exact model solution, precipitation will continue across southern Wisconsin along the occluded front of this system through Tuesday into Tuesday night as the low propagates into western Ontario (40-60% chances precipitation through the period). A transition to the cold frontal feature of this system occurs Wednesday, bringing an end to highs in the 60s by Thursday and a return to highs in the 50s. With this cold front in the vicinity into Thursday, continued shower and storm potential may also linger (20-35%).

A cold high pressure system sliding southward through the Canadian Prairies will bring a return to northwesterly winds, dry conditions, and highs in the low 50s by Friday.

MH

AVIATION

Issued 1114 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

High pressure will keep winds light and variable to calm throughout today. Winds gradually become easterly and steady overnight tonight, and southeasterly into Saturday morning. Cloud cover will gradually increase through the day into this evening, with scattered showers spreading west to east along and south of the I-94 corridor. Showers spread northward through central Wisconsin into Saturday morning. Expect VFR conditions to remain in place, with gradually lowering ceilings to ~5000 ft.

MH

MARINE

Issued 1114 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

High pressure around 30.2 inches will gradually slide eastward from northern Minnesota to the eastern Great Lakes region today through Saturday. Expect light and variable winds through Saturday morning, becoming southeasterly and increasing into Saturday afternoon as high pressure exits and low pressure around 29.8 inches develops in the central High Plains. Conditions may become hazardous to small craft in southern Wisconsin nearshore regions during this time period.

Winds shift southerly and weaken as low pressure lifts into the northern Plains into Sunday. Low pressure then looks to deepen Monday into Monday night, bringing increasing southeasterly winds and building waves. Winds remain strong and southeasterly through Tuesday into Tuesday night, with isolated gales possible. Low pressure exits into southern Canada into Wednesday, with winds gradually shifting southwesterly and diminishing.

MH

MKX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...None.