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000 FXUS62 KMFL 302014 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 414 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026...New SHORT TERM, BEACHES...KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 408 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
- Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains possible for the remainder of the week into the weekend. Inundated roadways along coastal areas will be likely.
- High surf conditions expected for Palm Beach and Broward beaches, starting Saturday afternoon.
- Chances for heavy rainfall return starting Saturday and being maximized Sunday- Monday as a disturbance moves across the area. Generalized 1-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts could lead to flooding.
- Increasing winds and seas across the local Atlantic waters tonight will result in hazardous boating conditions through the weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 408 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Regional mid-lvl ridging will remain in place today, with pressure gradients across the area gradually increasing into the weekend. This will result in extended periods of gusty conditions along coastal locations, mainly across the Atlantic coast of SoFlo.
Radar data through early this afternoon has shown very sparse showers streaming westward across the area, mainly north of interstate 75. A few late afternoon thunderstorms are possible, especially with the peak of daytime heating, but coverage will remain between isolated and scattered (20-40%). Saturday may see a surge in moisture advection from the Atlantic, with max POPs into the 60% range, mainly south of interstate 75. WPC latest outlook places the Atlantic metro areas under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for potential of isolated/localized flooding with the heaviest downpours.
The ongoing hazard, coastal flooding, is expected to continue at least through Saturday across the Atlantic coastline. Please see the BEACH forecast section below for specific details about the coastal products in effect.
Afternoon max temperatures today should remain in the mid-upper 80s, while overnight lows should drop into the low-mid 70s inland, and mid-upper 70s elsewhere.
LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
The aforementioned upper-level disturbance should move across the Florida peninsula on Sunday, bringing the wettest period of the forecast. Increasing large-scale ascent, cooler mid-level temperatures and a deep moisture profile should support widespread shower and thunderstorm development through much of the day, with PoPs in the 80-90% range. Heavy rainfall and potential flooding will be the main concerns, with WPC already placing the East Coast metro areas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of Flash flooding on Sunday and Monday. In fact, guidance shows the highest convective coverage could be most likely along the East Coast. However, this will ultimately be very dependent on the timing, track and strength of the feature as it moves across the area.
DESI 500mb heights ensemble cluster analysis still shows a primary cluster with a weaker system that takes a more northerly track, while the other three clusters favor some flavor of a deeper system taking a more southerly track. The more northerly track would take the higher rainfall totals north across northern-central FL, while the more southerly tracks would keep the heavy rainfall concentrated across central and south FL. Among the global ensembles, the GEFS moves the system eastward faster, while the ENS shows the disturbance, and thus its impacts, lingering into Monday. As such, the ENS solution is also the wetter of the possible options. As a result of these slight guidance discrepancies, there is still somewhat low-to-medium confidence regarding the forecast for Sunday and Monday, but we erred on the side of the more southerly solutions and kept high PoPs gradually tapering off from west to east on Monday night.
Confidence in the forecast declines further as we head into the middle of next week. Mid-level ridging will look to build briefly across the area, favoring a brief dry out across the region Tuesday and Wednesday. However, later in the week the global models try to develop the next upper level trough and surface low over the Rockies. This complex would gradually move eastward and potentially bring a cold front across the FL peninsula late in the week. Considerable spread remains in the timing and strength of this solution, and we will continue to monitor the evolution of the forecast as we approach next week.
Temperatures will cool down a bit Sunday-Monday with the increased storminess and cloud cover, with highs in the mid 80s. Lows will slide into the mid 60s across the interior, and the low 70s along the coasts.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible with lowering vis/cigs accompanying passing showers. A lower deck of clouds may linger across the area tonight and into Saturday. E/NE winds will continue tonight, and becoming gusty around 25kt after 15Z. VCTS has been introduced for Saturday late morning and afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Conditions will start to gradually deteriorate today as the pressure gradient over Florida strengthens. As a result, winds across the local Atlantic waters will increase up to 20-25 kts starting tonight, while seas will build up to 7-10 ft along the Gulf Stream. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect starting tonight and through the weekend. Conditions across the Gulf will remain below hazardous criteria, but will need to be monitored closely. These impacts could last through the weekend as the stout pressure gradient and breezy easterly northeasterly winds prevail. Isolated showers and a rogue thunderstorm or two remain possible today. Chances for more widespread rain and storms increase during the weekend.
BEACHES
Issued at 408 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Coastal flooding remains likely along the Atlantic coastline during the high tide cycles. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic coastline, and a High Surf Advisory will begin Saturday afternoon for Palm Beach and Broward beaches.
A high risk of rip currents will also persist along the Atlantic coastline through Sunday evening.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Miami | 76 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 60% | 70% | 70% | 90% |
| West Kendall | 76 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 40% | 70% | 70% | 90% |
| Opa-Locka | 76 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 60% | 60% | 70% | 80% |
| Homestead | 76 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 40% | 60% | 70% | 90% |
| Fort Lauderdale | 76 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 60% | 60% | 80% | 90% |
| N Ft Lauderdale | 76 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 60% | 50% | 70% | 90% |
| Pembroke Pines | 75 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 60% | 60% | 70% | 90% |
| West Palm Beach | 75 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 40% | 30% | 60% | 80% |
| Boca Raton | 76 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 40% | 50% | 70% | 90% |
| Naples | 73 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 20% | 50% | 40% | 80% |
MFL WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ168-172- 173.
High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168.
High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172.
High Rip Current Risk from 8 PM EDT this evening through Sunday evening for FLZ172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...None.
SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...17