Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Temperatures this week will climb into the triple digits most locations each afternoon. Additional Heat Advisories are likely, as the effects of heat are cumulative, and present an increasing risk of heat-related illnesses. - There will be a slight chance for rain along with a weak cold front this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Typical dog day summer afternoons are expected in the short term. High pressure dominates the weather pattern bringing mostly clear skies and temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Temps in the Pecos River valley and mountains are enough above normal to warrant heat advisories, but otherwise conditions are not too atypical for this time of year.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The upper level high remains in place over the southern Plains through the end of the week. Therefore no change is expected in the weather with temperatures near the century mark. Thankfully the high is centered far enough north that easterly flow dampens the heat enough to prevent a run of truly brutal temperatures.

The pattern changes slightly by the weekend. The high amplifies and shifts slightly back to the west allowing a trough to drop down into the upper Midwest. This trough pushes a front south into our CWA Saturday and long term models are showing convection developing along the front. We will still be under the upper influence of the high so subsidence should prevent widespread convection, but perhaps we will see some isolated activity...enough to break the monotony of this week. The NBM indicates that a northeasterly wind shift will not do much if anything to cool temperatures so we will have to see if this changes over the several models runs.

Hennig

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions continue at all terminals. Southeasterly winds sustained around 10-15kts. Gusts occasionally topping out around 20kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MAF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Tuesday for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Loving-Reeves County Plains-Ward.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT Tuesday for Eddy County Plains- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.