Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 639 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Rain tapers off from southwest to northeast from 12 pm through sunset.

- Regions of fog and mist under light and variable winds tonight. Patchy fog and mist for parts of the plains and valleys on Halloween night.

- Drier weather with warmer temperatures (highs in the 70s and 80s this weekend.

- Windy conditions and a cooling trend in temperatures (highs back down to the 60s and 70s F, lows in the 40s and 50s F) by middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Following light to moderate rain since Thursday evening with up to 1" to 2" accumulation for much of the Big Bend up to the Permian Basin, as well as parts of the SE NM plains, rainfall will begin to taper off from 12 pm through 6 pm today. This will occur as the remnants of TC Vance are shunted off to the east/northeast as the mid to upper disturbance over the Desert SW develops into the Southern Great Plains. Drier air works in from southwest to northeast as near surface winds become more variable and lose the consistent humid, upslope southeast flow. Rain chances during the first six hours of the forecast decrease from 35% to 45% over northern Lea County into the northern and eastern Permian Basin down to 25% to 30%. Rain chances then decrease to near zero after sunset. Despite decreasing rain chances, skies will remain mostly cloudy northeast of the Pecos River today. This keeps temperatures in the 60s F for much of the area northeast of the Pecos River, and still within the upper 60s to mid 70s F range southwest of the Pecos River into Rio Grande basin. Lows tonight again fall into the mid 50s to 60s F range, but due to the recently saturated soils, low cloud decks will be slow to lift and may lower once again. NWP Guidance and forecast grids are consistent in showing regions of patchy mist and fog developing from late tonight through Saturday morning, especially for the plains and valley regions where heavier rain fell since yesterday.

Saturday maintains the lull in active weather following the late week rain event from the past two days, allowing time for any last minute Halloween festivity preparations. Low clouds erode from southwest to northeast from mid-morning through mid afternoon Saturday, and highs rebound back into the upper 60s to mid 70s F as thinning cloud cover allows for more daytime heating. There is a low (10% to 30%) chance of showers/storms over the Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos if enough breaks in cloud cover can occur to allow for heating of elevated terrain. Nonetheless, with lack of forcing, any activity will diminish by sunset, in time for Halloween night. Lows tomorrow night will be slightly warmer than tonight under renewed light southeast winds. However, despite renewed winds, recently saturated soils may allow for development of ground mist and/or fog by for low-lying regions in plains and valleys once again by midnight - providing a nice atmospheric backdrop for the close of Halloween. The weather pattern remains unsettled going into November. More details in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A warming trend ensues late weekend into early next as mid-level ridging and accompanying sinking and drying motion briefly spikes ahead of a more zonal and progressive upper air pattern. Highs rise into the mid to upper 70s and 80s F on Sunday for warmer spots over the Upper Trans Pecos into Stockton Plateau and basins of Culberson County into the southern Rio Grande basin. The weather remains quiet with very low rain chances until Sunday night. By then, a more progressive weather pattern and an approaching disturbance bypassing the area to the north results in increased rain chances up to 30% for the northernmost SE NM plains. Lows Sunday night then again drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s F as southerly winds persist.

A slight cooldown begins early next week as Pacific air moves in behind a surface cold front accompanying passage of the upper air disturbance. In response, winds are expected to shift from southerly to westerly and bring in cooler air from west to east. However, the bigger story will be strong winds aloft mixing down the surface. We are monitoring the potential for strong winds at least 35 to 50 mph with higher gusts to develop over the Guadalupes/Delawares Monday morning, with 25 to 35 mph winds elsewhere. Guidance and grids suggest these winds peaking Monday afternoon/evening and continuing through Tuesday. Due to the duration, high wind products and wind advisories may need to be issued for western higher terrain in subsequent shifts. Highs decrease from the upper 60s to lower 70s F western higher terrain, mid 70s to lower 80s F lowlands Monday into the mid 60s to lower 70s F areawide on Tuesday. Lows likewise fall from the upper 40s to mid 50s F Monday night into the lower 40s to lower 50s F by Tuesday night. Temperatures then moderate slightly by mid to late next week, while rain chances remain very low within the mild but dry modified Pacific air mass common leeward of the Rockies during this time of year.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions will continue through at least tomorrow morning across most terminals. After 02Z, conditions will deteriorate mainly to IFR and even LIFR. Patchy FG and CIGs below 500 ft look to occur at times, therefore, TEMPOs were implemented at MAF, HOB, INK, and PEQ sites. Further amendments may be needed for CNM and FST, though left out TEMPOs for now due to lower confidence.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MAF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.