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000 FXUS64 KLZK 301728 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
- Upper level high pressure will be moving to the east of the forecast area today with dry and mild conditions expected.
- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this weekend but rain amounts are not expected to be very high.
- A much stronger system is set to arrive Tuesday and Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms likely.
- The chances of severe weather appear low at this time with the system next week but can not be ruled out entirely. The system will continue to be watched closely.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
No appreciable changes will be made to the current forecast package this morning with guidance continuing to show the pattern becoming more active than what has been seen of late. All is quiet across the FA this morning with just a generous amount of mid to high level moisture advancing across the state with temperatures on the seasonably cool side.
Pattern this morning features a somewhat amplified upper flow with upper ridging over the central gulf and extending off the the northwest. Upper level troughing/upper level low pressure remains off the west coast at this time and will become a major player in our sensible weather mid to late next week.
The aforementioned upper ridge slowly shifts away from the region today but will still provide the FA with another day of warm and dry conditions, albeit several degrees cooler mainly due to an increase in cloud cover. As the ridge pulls east, southwest flow will increase and start to pull moisture out of the gulf and into the FA.
Guidance continue to show a couple of weak upper level impulses moving through the southwest flow to bring at least some showers and isolated thunderstorms to the state. The first impulses is slated to move across Friday night and Saturday with the second one right on its heels keeping precip chances in the forecast through the weekend. The weekend will not be a complete washout by any stretch with QPF in the quarter to half inch range with the far east likely seeing the higher amounts.
Weak ridging returns for Sunday night and Monday although a stray shower can not be ruled out at any given time. Attention will then turn to the previously mentioned west coast trough/upper low that will have moved from its current position off the west coast and into the northern and central plains by the end of Monday.
Moisture levels will be increasing substantially as the parent low moves into the upper midwest Monday night into Tuesday. Surface cold front will be located over far east Oklahoma early Tuesday with a secondary area of low pressure developing along the boundary over far SW MO/far NW AR.
Long range models are in decent enough agreement with bringing the cold front through the FA Tuesday and Tuesday night with upper support keeping precipitation chances in the forecast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Timing would push the heaviest rain to the east of the metro for trick or treating but could impact any planned activity for Halloween over the east Tuesday evening.
Flooding is not a major concern with the speed of the system and antecedent conditions but several inches of rain can not be ruled out and would actually be welcomed. Severe weather at this time does not appear widespread with upper flow largely parallel to the system and stability looking limited. Still, a wary eye will remain on this system as it evolves over the next few days.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
VFR conditions to prevail through the evening Fri. Sky coverage will continue to increase to overcast across most of the area throughout the day with CIGs to decrease overnight but remain above VFR thresholds. Scattered showers will begin to work their way into the area from the SW Sat morning with small chances of MVFR CIGs embedded within stronger rain. Showers to increase in coverage throughout the day Sat and slowly move off to the NE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Widespread VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area as upper level high pressure continues to slide off to the east. Mid to high level moisture will prevail with winds averaging under 10 knots.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Batesville AR | 58 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 70% | 30% |
| Camden AR | 57 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 10% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Harrison AR | 56 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 10% | 20% | 60% | 20% |
| Hot Springs AR | 58 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 10% | 50% | 60% | 20% |
| Little Rock AR | 60 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 10% | 30% | 60% | 30% |
| Monticello AR | 61 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 10% | 30% | 60% | 50% |
| Mount Ida AR | 54 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 55 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 10% | 50% | 60% | 10% |
| Mountain Home AR | 58 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 60% | 30% |
| Newport AR | 61 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 70% | 40% |
| Pine Bluff AR | 58 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 10% | 30% | 60% | 30% |
| Russellville AR | 58 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 10% | 30% | 60% | 20% |
| Searcy AR | 58 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 0% | 20% | 70% | 30% |
| Stuttgart AR | 61 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 10% | 20% | 70% | 40% |
LZK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
None.
SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...78