Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Small Craft Advisory was cancelled for the Upper Tidal Potomac and Upper Bay. Otherwise, no major changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Cool start to week, then shower and thunderstorm chances return late this week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool start to week, then shower and thunderstorm chances return late this week and into the weekend.

Winds quickly diminish this evening. High pressure building over the region tonight promotes light to calm winds and clear skies. A great setup for radiative cooling that will drop temps to the 50s east of the Blue Ridge, and 40s to the west. The highest locations in the Alleghenies could drop to the upper 30s.

Light east to southeast winds Tuesday and Wednesday as the high pressure shifts offshore. Expect a gradual warm up with Wednesday's forecast highs back into the mid/upper 80s, with mainly 70s for the mountains. Despite higher humidity, the pattern does remain dry.

Upper level ridging shifts eastward offshore throughout the day on Thursday as a cold front drops southeast from the Great Lakes. Primarily dry conditions are expected on Thursday with only a slight chances of showers and thunderstorms west of I-81 in the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to 80s across the forecast area with RH values expected to increase through the afternoon.

The approaching cold front brings a good bit of uncertainty with the forecast for Friday through the weekend. The main impact will be on temperature forecast with the high temperature spread ranging from the upper 60s to upper 90s depending on the placement of the front this weekend. The first possible solution will be the cooler of the two with the front passing through the forecast area before stalling near the VA/NC border. The second solution involves the front stalling overhead with warmer temperatures expected.

Either way, expect the return of daily shower and thunderstorm chances later this week and into the weekend as the front approaches and impacts the forecast area. The best chance for storms will be Friday as the initial front moves into the Mid-Atlantic and then again on Sunday as an additional front approaches from the northwest.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

North winds continue gusting around 20-25 knots through this evening, then quickly diminish. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through mid week as high pressure to the north shifts offshore. Not much in the way of convection expected until Friday when a cold front approaches the region.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through tonight for northerly channeling that is producing gusts of 20-25 knots. Winds begin to diminish after sunset as high pressure builds over the region. Light winds are around 5-10 knots are expected Tuesday through Wednesday. SCA conditions are possible Thursday afternoon into early Friday in southerly channeling.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

A gradual rise in water levels is expected starting late Tuesday as high pressure pulls away from the Eastern Seaboard. This again pushes a number of sites into Action stage during the higher of the two astronomical high tides on late Tuesday/early Wednesday.

LWX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ531>533-536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ534-537-543.