Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGE

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Triple digit high temperatures and dry conditions expected through the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Another hot day remains in store for today. Current water vapor imagery shows upper ridging parked over much of CONUS. Thickness increases due to the upper ridging will increase temperatures to triple digits across the forecast area. Current surface temperatures of 80s will increase to 100-105 degrees later this afternoon. With decent dewpoints (~upper 50s-lower 60s), especially off the Caprock, the heat index could reach up to 108 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains from 1 PM to 9 PM today. Current surface observations indicate southerly winds from the southwest. Light to moderate south to southwesterly winds will prevail the rest of today, overnight, as well as through Monday. Tonight will be quiet and pleasant with lows in the 70s across the region. Monday will be a rinse and repeat of today. The persistent upper ridging will remain over much of the CONUS. Thickness increases will warm highs to triple digits again. With high temperatures around Heat Advisory level (105-109 degrees), a Heat Advisory has been issued for the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains from 1 PM to 9PM CDT Monday. Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep precipitation chances near zero.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Sadly, the triple digit temperatures and dry conditions are not done with us yet. The stubborn upper ridging will remain over the region through at least the end of the work week. This regime will keep highs near Heat Advisory temperatures with the hottest days looking to be Thursday and Friday. Highs on Wednesday and Friday will be close to tying the record high at both KLBB and KCDS. Wednesday forecasted highs are 101 degrees at KLBB and 104 degrees at KCDS with record highs of 102 degrees set in 19848 and 104 degrees set in 1934, respectively. As for Friday, the forecast highs are 104 degrees at KLBB and 106 degrees at KCDS with record highs of 106 most recently set in 1957 and 2012 most recently set in 2012, respectively. Subsidence from the upper ridging and little moisture will keep conditions dry. An upper pattern change next weekend will cool temperatures, albeit only slightly, as well as possible precipitation chances. Models indicate an upper trough will dig south across eastern CONUS later in the week, effectively pushing the upper ridging west towards the Desert Southwest. The eastern edge of the ridging will remain over the region keeping temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s. However, some embedded shortwaves will break the dry spell.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

CAVOK through Monday with mostly light winds.

LUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for TXZ021>044.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ025-026-031-032.