Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Rain chances will persist through this evening for the entire region.

- Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding during this time.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Rain showers have struggled to get going this evening. There have been some which have mostly been confined to Crosby, Garza, and eastern Lubbock counties. The first round of showers to move through were quickly outran by outflow. This second round has lasted longer but is still not widespread in coverage. The bulk of upper lift is still over northern Mexico and is expected to spread northeastward through the early morning hours and should expand shower coverage. CAMs are mostly agreeing with this assessment. While some showers will be likely to produce heavy rainfall, the higher amounts previously expected are less likely to happen given this first round of precip was lackluster. Despite this, we will keep the Flood Watch going as localized street flooding will still be possible given high available moisture and PWATs averaging around 1.5 inches.

Rain will continue on and off through much of today and become more light and stratiform like through the day. Precip will slowly taper off from west to east during the evening into early Saturday morning as the axis of the upper trough pushes to our east. The combination of overcast skies and rain will keep highs on the cool side today, only reaching into the upper 50s to around 60.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Some model guidance is still showing some lingering precipitation off the caprock through Saturday morning. However, this is most likely low stratus and possibly drizzle. Short wave ridging will return late Saturday through the day on Sunday in advance of the next trough digging into the western CONUS. The next short wave trough will track to the four corners by Monday morning providing another shot of precipitation from late Sunday through Monday. Forcing associated with this short wave looks to be briefer than what is expected for Friday but also may be stronger. The other notable feature in the long term forecast will be a strong cold front currently forecast to move through on Tuesday morning. Surface winds will pack a punch behind this front but temperatures don't appear to be significantly affected.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Widespread rain is ongoing across the region and will continue through at least the next few hours resulting in periodic visibility restrictions. CIGs are expected to hover on the border of IFR and MVFR at KLBB/KPVW through most of today, but confidence in precise evolution of CIGs over the next several hours is low, therefore expect frequent amendments. CIGs at KCDS are more uncertain, but could also fall to IFR for a time this morning. Overall, will keep TAFs pessimistic until consistent trends are noted. Precipitation is expected to gradually decrease in coverage from southwest to northeast later today, but precise timing is uncertain. Expect another round of IFR or LIFR CIGs tonight through early Saturday morning.

LUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ021>044.