Area Forecast Discussion

SYNOPSIS

14/1239 AM.

Warm but below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday, with expanding coastal morning low clouds. Temperatures are likely to increase towards the end of the week.

SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)

14/1248 AM.

Fairly benign conditions ahead of us. Temperatures will steadily lower a little each day through Wednesday. Why? For one, an upper level trough of low pressure over the western United States will amplify each day. Secondly, surface pressure gradients will keep coolish ocean air pushing inland while the north-to-south gradients from the weekend return to onshore. Lastly, the northwest winds over Santa Barbara County will decrease sharply over the next two days, which will allow the marine layer to flex more and expand. A strong coastal eddy is also still on track to form on Tuesday, which should really expand that cool marine layer air and may bring some spots of pavement-wetting drizzle. As a result, highs will still generally be in the mid 70s to upper 80s which is far from cold, but not hot either and below normal by 5 or 10 degrees.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

14/118 AM.

High pressure over the southeastern states will expand to the west Thursday through Saturday, but that expansion will battle a small yet potent closed low spinning north of southwest California. It seems like the vast majority of projections have settled on a pattern that will bring warming to the area, but the low will limit the high pressure expansion and the resulting warming. Some moderate northwest winds over Santa Barbara County, along with the highering pressure aloft will likely lower the extent over the marine layer but not get rid of it. With all that in consideration, look for highs to bump up 5-ish degrees and settle in the 80s to lower 90s by Friday, which is right about normal for this time of the year. Heat Advisories or warnings look unlikely. The tropical storm train off western Mexico will remain active, but not seeing any significant moisture surge signals into California.

AVIATION

14/0931Z.

At 09Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 4000 feet and 22 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Tuesday at KPRB, KPMD, KWJF.

For this morning: LIFR/IFR ceilings possible at KSBP (10%), KSMX (30%), KOXR (30%), KCMA (30%). MVFR ceilings possible at KSMO (50%) KLAX (60%) KLGB (90%) KBUR (40%) KVNY (30%).

For Tuesday morning: LIFR/IFR ceilings possible at KSBP (20%) KSMX (60%). MVFR ceilings possible at KSBA (30%) KOXR (50%) KCMA (50%) KSMO (80%) KLAX (80%) KLGB (90%) KBUR (60%) KVNY (60%).

Moderate confidence in TAF timing (+/- 3 hours).

KLAX...60% chance of BKN012-020 this morning, and a 80% chance Tuesday morning.Southeast winds likely 08-17Z each morning, with a 20% chance of reaching 8 knots.

KBUR...40% chance of BKN0006-012 this morning, and a 60% chance Tuesday morning.

MARINE

14/231 AM.

High confidence that the Gale Warnings for the outer Central Coast waters will convert to Small Craft Advisories (SCA) this morning, and end Tuesday morning. Will also add a low-end SCY for the nearshore Central Coast waters (60% chance of SCA conditions), but will hold off for the Santa Barbara Channel (30% chance of SCA conditions). High confidence in relative light winds with no SCA over the area to follow Tuesday through Thursday morning, with a return of normal outer waters SCA winds for Thursday night into the weekend. These winds will generate a building short- period fresh swell over all waters.

Stronger than usual southeast winds are likely south of Point Conception however, especially on Tuesday morning. While SCAs are not expected, local gusts 15-20 knots possible between the islands.

LOX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).