Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Elevated fire weather conditions in Central Nevada Tuesday through Thursday

* Warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday

* Low Chances for showers along the Oregon, Idaho border with Nevada Wednesday and Thursday

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday)

Dry pattern looks to continue through the week as Nevada remains under southwesterly flow aloft. The upper pattern looks to remain consistent for the week as a series of upper level troughs pass through the Pacific NW. This active pattern to our north will keep a very low 10% to 15% chance of light showers across the ID/OR/NV border as each trough passes through, this will keep temperatures close to seasonal for this time of year, yet winds over central Nevada elevated which will bring fire weather concerns for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday for the US 50 Corridor. Temperatures for the week will run in the upper 70s to upper 80s for highs, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Winds for northern Nevada will be out of the west to southwest at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH. For central Nevada winds will be stronger out of the southwest at 20 to 35 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH possible. Combined with low RH values in the afternoons this will lead to elevated to near critical fire weather concerns for White Pine, N Nye, S Eureka, and S Lander counties mid week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in dry conditions with seasonal temperatures continuing through the week.

There is high confidence in breezy to strong SW winds Tuesday through Thursday for central Nevada as an upper trough passes through OR/ID.

There is low confidence in a 10% to 15% chance for isolated showers Wednesday through Thursday for far northern Nevada.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon winds will be light and no precipitation is forecast for the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather conditions will be elevated to near critical for central Nevada this week as breezy to strong SW winds will be possible Tuesday through Thursday. Winds of 20 to 35 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH will be possible across the US 50 corridor. However the key limiting factors for fire weather conditions will be fuels for zone 425, and min RH values remaining above 15% for most locations. Will need to watch RH trends as fuels remain cured for 426, and 427. For northern Nevada fire weather concerns look to be low through the following weekend as a pair of upper troughs passing to the north look to keep winds low, and temperatures near to, to below normal, as well as a low chance for showers across the far north.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.