Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Low shower and storm chances today for eastern portions of NV

* Above average temperatures and a warming trend this week

* Increasing HeatRisk by Friday and the weekend

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The active pattern of recent weeks finally comes to an end today as high pressure returns to dominance over the Great Basin. There is still a small chance for showers or thunderstorms along the Utah border today, at about 5% to 10%. Starting tomorrow the high pressure system previously over the Great Plains will shift far enough west to entirely cut off moisture to the forecast area. The resulting drying trend will increase fire weather concerns, especially when paired with breezy afternoon winds 20-25 mph at times. The other main concern starting tomorrow will be heat. High temperatures will be five to ten degrees above normal and climb into the triple digits by Friday. Overnight temperatures will also be around ten degrees above normal and the combination of the two indicates a moderate risk for heat related illnesses, creeping into major risk for Friday and the weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Low confidence in a few final thunderstorms today. High confidence in dry and warming conditions and moderate confidence in intense heat impacts by late week. No changes were made to NBM output.

AVIATION

Gusty afternoon winds up to 25KT are expected at all sites except KENV today. Additionally there is a 5 to 10 percent chance of thunderstorms near or at KELY and KENV today. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated southwesterly wind speeds of 15-20 mph with gusts near 25mph are possible across western portions of FWZ 437 Sunday afternoon. Combined with RH values in the single digits this has created critical fire weather conditions in NW Nevada. A low percent chance for thunderstorms exists along the eastern NV border in FWZ 425/470 this afternoon. Storms that do occur will create hazardous conditions including dangerous lightning and gusty erratic winds. Faster storm motions today will inhibit precipitation that does occur from extinguishing any new starts.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ033.