Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Isolated pop up showers and storms Tuesday afternoon, becoming more prevalent on Wednesday.

- Drier air from a backdoor front brings more seasonably warm conditions and more comfortable humidity to the area on Thursday and Friday which will also drop rain chances. Rain chances return over the weekend, however.

- Stronger easterly winds may result in small craft advisory conditions for the latter half of the week in the coastal waters.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Upper level ridging dominates the pattern for forecast Tuesday, which will result in a slightly drier forecast. Southerly surface winds will help to advect warm and moist air into the region. Some isolated showers are possible during peak daytime heating, but this will be very sparse coverage. Temperatures will continue to be warm with highs in the mid 90s and heat index values in the 103-108 degree range so it will still be warm for this time of year. Be sure to stay hydrated if spending time outdoors and take frequent breaks.

Wednesday, a backdoor cool front will progress through the area. This front will enhance rain chances mainly for marine areas, but as we go toward the midday through the evening hours, some scattered storms will popup over land along the boundary. There are still some uncertainties in how far inland the system will progress northward, but at least the immediate coastal areas should see increased precipitation chances Wednesday afternoon/evening. These storms are not expected to be severe, but gusty winds (40-50mph) and lightning will be expected.

Thursday, conditions will be a lot drier with little to no precipitation expected. Temperatures should also be cooler as we get our first glimpse of fall. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s, which should feel really nice considering the above average temperatures lately. MSW

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The disturbance that was over the Atlantic Thursday should be in the northeast Gulf off the Florida west coast north or northwest of Tampa by Friday evening, with the upper ridge over northeast Texas. Some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF operational solutions as to how far westward this feature makes it before heading northward and eventually northeastward.

The ECMWF operational solution from 14/12z brings it as far west as Fort Walton Beach on Saturday, then drifts it slowly northward into Georgia by Monday night. The 14/18z GFS brings it to the Alabama- Mississippi border Sunday morning and leaves it in that general vicinity until the middle of next week. In either case, the local area should be on the "drier" side of the upper circulation. It does appear that the NBM PoP numbers for Saturday and Sunday have come down a bit from the previous run and are somewhat more in line with the Monday daytime ECMWF/GFS operational PoP numbers (30-50%).

Current guidance does continue to show somewhat lower dew points by the weekend, at least north of the Interstate 10 and 12 corridors. That should allow some of the normally cooler areas to dip into the upper 60s at least once over the weekend, but areas south of the corridors may not notice much difference in overnight lows. Highs may still get into the 90 to 95 range over the weekend in much of the area, but probably a few degrees short of today. Less cloud cover would fit with the operational PoPs and slightly higher temperatures. Heat index values are expected to remain below advisory criteria over the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. PROB30 group is in effect for GPT for tomorrow afternoon for isolated showers/storms that could drop conditions to MVFR briefly. MSW

MARINE

Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A broad surface high centered over the area will keep benign conditions in place across the waters through Tuesday with light and variable winds of less than 5 knots and seas of less than 2 feet expected. A few showers or storms will pop up in the morning hours with some locally higher winds and waves possible as well as lightning and waterspouts especially on Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient will begin tightening Wednesday morning behind a backdoor front. This will cause easterly winds to increase to 15 to 25 knots with gusts upwards of 30 knots midday Wednesday through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect Wednesday night into Thursday night. Seas will respond to these higher winds and increase to 8 to 10 feet in the outer waters. These unsettled marine conditions will gradually abate late Friday and into Saturday.

LIX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.