Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with warm afternoons and cool nights will continue through Thursday.

- Wildfire risk will remain elevated each afternoon through Thursday, due to continuing drought conditions and afternoon relative humidity dropping to 30-60%.

- Rain chances return to the forecast late Friday into Saturday and again on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

High pressure at the surface is located along the Eastern Seaboard and continues to create easterly flow across the region. Aloft, we are under an area of ridging with 500 mb heights around 592 dm. This ridge is pulling moisture from the remnants of an east Pac tropical system into the upper levels. This flow of moisture will cause PWATs to rapidly rise, going from 1 inch to nearly 2 inches in about 36 hours. Those values will put our PWATs above the 90th percentile. With the high moisture content, the region is under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Saturday. A weak shortwave trough will undercut the ridge and provide some synoptic lift across the region. The main limiting factor for widespread heavy rain will be a lack of CAPE with GFS ensembles showing average CAPE values maxing out around 400 J/kg. This lack of CAPE will keep the severe threat low, with only isolated thunderstorms expected. Models have also been inconsistent in QPF amounts with large swings between runs. The most recent model trends have started to show more rain for the region.

After the system moves out of the region, we will dry out Sunday and Monday before the next system moves across the Gulf Coast around midweek. An upper level cutoff low will move across the CONUS with an accompanying cold front. This looks like it could be the first robust front of the season, with consistent model signals showing surface CAPE values averaging around 1000 J/kg with MUCAPE closer to 2000 J/kg. Along with bulk shear (0-6 km) values around 30 knots, we could see some organized convection. In addition, ML/AI models like the NSSL and WXNext2 are highlighting Tuesday for a severe weather threat. While still far out in the forecast, it is worth keeping a close eye on.

Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated through this evening, however high clouds will remain in place. Showers will begin to work into the area at the very end of the period. Winds will be east to southeast.

MARINE

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

East winds are between 5 and 15 knots across the near shore waters. The outer coastal waters have higher winds closer to 20 knots and an exercise caution statement is in effect through Friday morning. Wave heights are between 2 and 4 feet. Rain chances will increase on Friday and Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Extreme to Exceptional drought is impacting much of the region and fuels are responding in kind, with KBDI values approaching 800 across central Louisiana. The "best" values in our CWA are still between 550 and 600. Relief is on the way as a surge of moisture will increase minRH values to 40 to 60% through the weekend. Winds are also forecasted to remain light and from the east. Still event with low winds and improving minRH a large wildfire was located in Kisatchie National Forest today that burned for several hours.

A pair of system will bring some much needed rain. The first will be on Saturday and the second on Tuesday. Forecasted rainfall amounts for both systems area a little over an inch area wide.

LCH WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.