Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall could develop.

- Drier and cooler weather is expected for the weekend into the first of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Today, surface high pressure will move across western Nebraska as a cold front reaches the Texas panhandle through northeast Kansas by late afternoon. Northeast winds will become easterly this afternoon. Highs will range from 71 to 75 which is about 5 degrees below normal. Dry conditions with skies becoming mostly sunny north central, with mostly cloudy skies lingering across far southwest Nebraska through late afternoon.

Tonight, winds will turn to the south and southeast, with an increase in low and mid level moisture. Stratus should develop across southwest and central Nebraska late. No fog is shown by the latest mesoscale models. Showers look less likely, with only a slight chance across portions of southwest and central Nebraska after midnight. Lows from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Wednesday, expecting morning stratus, with clearing in the west and cloudiness into the afternoon across the east. Only a slight chance for morning showers in the far southeast. Surface low pressure will deepen along the Front Range of Colorado into Wyoming, bringing a south wind with breezy conditions in the west. Stratus and afternoon clouds will hold back highs in the east to the low to mid 70s, while the west reaches the upper 70s to lower 80s, aided by more sunshine and deeper mixing.

Wednesday night, a warm front will lift to near the NE/KS border. With a strengthening low level jet, this will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, with likely POPs after midnight across southwest into central Nebraska. At this time only general thunderstorms are forecast. Lows 55 to around 60.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Southwest flow aloft will be in place Thursday and Friday. This is a result of upper high pressure anchored across the southeast CONUS and an upper low across the Pacific northwest. This will allow a surge of sub-tropical moisture to move northeastward into the area. 09/18Z ENS/GEFS PWATS increase substantially Thursday and Thursday night. Anomalously high values of 1.5 to 1.7 inches will be in place. As a shortwave disturbance tracks northeastward across the area, surface low pressure deepens across northeast Colorado. A warm front will arc eastward from the low. As mentioned, an increase mid- level sub-tropical moisture is expected, with an increase in low- level moisture as well. Locally heavy rainfall could become a concern Thursday night, as a southerly low-level jet develops across Kansas and noses into the warm front located across the southern Nebraska vicinity. Elevated instability will increase north of the front across much of western and north central Nebraska, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop. The 09/18Z ENS 24 mean QPF is exceeding 1", with a bullseye located across the Sandhills into north central Nebraska. POPs are high during this timeframe and see no reason to lower with all the available moisture and warm frontal boundary set-up across the area.

The upper level low across the Pacific northwest will fill and translate eastward across the Northern Plains Friday. Ridging aloft then builds across the area during the weekend into the first of next week. At the surface, a cold front will move southward through the area Saturday with a cooler, drier Canadian airmass spreading into the area Saturday through Monday. Highs will mostly be in the 70s during this timeframe with only a slight chance for any precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions the next 24 hours at the KLBF and KVTN terminals. A cold front is currently moving through far southwest Nebraska. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms across southwest and central Nebraska late this evening and overnight. At this time, coverage looks isolated to widely scattered. Mentioned VCSH at KLBF from 06Z to 09Z. At KLBF, a northeast wind behind the front will increase to 04013G24KT 08Z to 14Z. Winds will diminish during the morning to AOB 10KT in the afternoon.

LBF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.