Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation continues through Tuesday morning, with the greatest accumulations expected north of HWY 2.

- Strong northwest winds are expected behind a cold front Monday night into Tuesday, with a threat for wind gusts as high as 55 miles per hour.

- Temperatures return to near seasonal mid week onward. Through the end of the week, precipitation chances remain low. Precipitation may return by the weekend, however, confidence remains low at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 201 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Currently, rain continues to overspread much of western and north central Nebraska, ahead of deepening surface low pressure across eastern Wyoming. Temperatures remain steady in the middle to upper 50s across the area, amid continued southeasterly warm advection. Modest MUCAPE ~250-500J/kg has overspread western and southwest Nebraska, as lapse rates have steepened aloft ahead of the encroaching upper low beginning to eject east into the Rockies.

For today, expect ongoing precipitation to continue to slowly spread north and east through this morning, gradually exiting into South Dakota by this afternoon. This is as the surface low begins to eject eastwards into the Sandhills, dragging a cold front quickly across the area today from west to east. A brief lull in precipitation can be expected with frontal passage this afternoon, before the upper low begins to move east and the deformation axis begins to overspread western Nebraska by this evening and tonight. Guidance continues to be in good agreement with a lack of cold air within this deformation axis, with a model consensus even pointing to H85 temps remaining above freezing through the entirety of the event. This will keep all precipitation as liquid, and will certainly limit impacts as winds strengthen behind the cold front. In all, the greatest accumulations look to remain for areas north of HWY 2, with amounts of 0.5-1.0" possible. Areas further south will likely see lesser longevity of precipitation this morning, and look to remain south of the deformation band tonight into Tuesday. Accumulations south of HWY 2 are largely expected to remain <0.25".

The main impact still looks to be the aforementioned strong northwest winds behind the cold front, as strengthening cold advection promotes ample mechanical mixing tonight into tomorrow morning. Flow aloft quickly strengthens on the backside of the departing low tonight, with H7-H85 flow strengthening to 40-45kts across the area. This is slightly weaker than in previous forecast cycles, and lends some doubt to the threat for high wind warning criteria (58+ mph) gusts tonight into tomorrow morning. Still, with the ample mechanical mixing promoting this higher momentum flow downwards, a very windy overnight and Tuesday morning can be expected as gusts of 45 to 55 miles per hour persist for all of western and north central Nebraska. Tuesday morning looks miserable from a weather perspective, with the strong northwest wind gusts, scattered precipitation and wind chills falling into the lower to middle 20s. The system slowly departs through the day Tuesday, though the strong winds will likely persist into Tuesday evening. Some rain may linger across north central Nebraska as well, before precipitation finally ends by Tuesday night. Temperatures Tuesday afternoon are only expected to climb into the upper 40s for most, with the strong cold advection combining with the persistent cloudiness being slow to clear from west to east into Tuesday evening.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 201 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A fairly active upper level pattern is expected across the United States Wednesday onward, however, most of the systems are expected to track either north or south of the region. This will generally bring a cooler, drier weather pattern that settles in for the rest of the week. Wednesday and into the weekend, highs are only expected to climb into the 50s across most of western and north central Nebraska, though a few highs clipping into the lower 60s cannot be completely ruled out. These highs are fairly typical for early November, as our climatological highs range between 55 to 58 degrees. Lows each night are expected to drop into the lower 30s, with some potential for localized drops into the upper 20s. Typical lows for early November are in the mid 20s, so this pattern may keep us just slightly warmer than normal.

Will continue to monitor the potential for precipitation during the weekend, as an upper level disturbance is expected to track across the Dakotas. Precipitation chances have remained fairly low confidence, as there is still some uncertainty in how this pattern will evolve. Latest guidance is trending the shortwave slightly further north, which may now only bring a glancing blow of precipitation across the northern portions of the state. In fact, ensemble guidance is now fairly pessimistic on northern Nebraska receiving any precipitation. Latest probabilities from the GEFS for measureable rainfall are widely less than 20 percent for areas along and north of Highway 20, with some localized pockets of 30 percent chances along Highway 20. However, the European ensembles cover most of the region in a 30 percent chance for measureable rainfall this weekend. Even if precipitation were to occur, at this time, it looks to be very little. However, given the uncertainty, will continue to monitor forecast trends and make changes to the forecast as appropriate.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1143 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Rain showers and low stratus is observed across western and north central Nebraska tonight, with showers expected to persist across northern portions of the region. Additionally, a strong low level jet is expected along and east of a KLBF to KVTN line tonight, bringing LLWS concerns across eastern portions of the region. By the morning, expecting a slight erosion of the stratus deck across southwest Nebraska, which may allow for brief VFR conditions. However, this is expected to be short lived, as a low pressure system brings a return of showers and lower ceilings, mostly MVFR to IFR conditions. The low will also support strong, gusty surface winds across the region, with gusts in excess of 45 knots across the Sandhills. Gusty conditions are expected to last through the night, with additional rain showers likely.

LBF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.