Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress persists into mid-week.

- "Extreme Heat Warning" and "Heat Advisory" in effect through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Tonight through Saturday...The main focus during this forecast period remains that of the oppressive heat that'll be observed over the area through at least the middle of the week. Strong high pressure aloft remains wedged into the region from the west, while high pressure at the surface remains wedged in from the south. The combination of both will yield a period of above normal temperatures (highs from the mid 90s to just above the century mark), along with very humid conditions as dew points sit in the 70s. Afternoon heat index values will consistently climb to & above 106F through mid- week, with some locations along & west of the Interstate 55 corridor seeing indices climb to and above 110F.

A "Heat Advisory" remains in effect across the forecast area this afternoon and Monday as indices range between 106F-110F. The exception to this is currently across Bolivar, Sunflower, & Leflore counties where afternoon heat index values will climb above 110F. Here, an "Extreme Heat Warning" is in effect today & Monday. In addition on this afternoon's package, confidence in indices climbing above 110F has increased across a larger portion of the CWA for Tuesday. Therefore, we've expanded the "Extreme Heat Warning" over some central and western portions of the area Tuesday, with a "Heat Advisory" in effect elsewhere.

At the end of the forecast period, Thursday through Saturday, the aforementioned high aloft will weaken its presence across region as it retreats westward. This will allow troughing along the east coast to deepen across the Southeast United States. As this happens, another surface boundary will attempt to sink south into the CWA. This will increase rain chances across the area, potentially bringing at least some temporary relief to the heat. One thing of note during this time, while chances for isolated to scattered convection will increase, the increased northwest flow aloft across the region could yield an MCS or two affecting the forecast area. This is still many days out and will continue to be monitored in future model data, as well as in radar and satellite data as we get into that Thursday-Saturday timeframe. /19/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds today will be westerly between 5-10 knots, with a few higher gusts possible. These will subside a bit this evening to between 3-5 knots, while becoming more southwesterly. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

JAN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for MSZ026>066-072>074.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ028>033- 037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-060>066-072>074.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Monday for MSZ018-019-025.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018- 019-025>027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059.

LA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for ARZ074-075.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074-075.