Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Beach Hazards Statement issued for East and Southeast facing beaches for a strong south to north longshore current developing Tue afternoon and persisting into the evening.

Aviation discussion updated for the 00Z Tafs issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat Advisory likely for part of the area Tuesday.

2) Strong storms possible Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat Advisory likely for part of the area Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... 20+ degree 850mb temperatures return tomorrow ahead of a cold front. This will allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the 90s while dewpoints are progged to get into the mid/upper 70s. Concerned with NW flow and the steep LL hydrolapse rates that some lower dewpoints could mix down but after collab with CHS and CAE have gone ahead and raised a Heat Advisory for all but northern row of counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong storms possible Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... After a moistly rain-free Tuesday a cold front and mid level trough will impinge upon the area from the NNW. Models are bullish on both POPS and QPF as this occurs, and the available moisture concerns expressed above could very well mean that both are running too high. Assuming that some surface dewpoint recovery is possible around sunset have not deviated from blended POPs/QPF with this package. Rainfall totals thus expected to have a N-S gradient with the Cape Fear Region nabbing 1-1.25".

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Widely scattered showers this evening, too isolated to even include at any 1 terminals. Will indicate some convective debris clouds going into the overnight. Otherwise, as mentioned b4, MVFR fog remains possible and will decide at press time whether to include at any 1 terminal. Winds tonight generally SSW becoming SW-WSW AOB 4 kt, with intervals of calm winds. For Tue, mainly VFR thru the day with a PROB30 threat for TSRA at LBT and/or ILM prior to the end of the 24 hr fcst period. This a result of the convection dropping down from the north. Winds Tue start at light SW-W that will generally become SW 10-15 kt inland and SSW 10-15g20+ kt at the coastal terminals during the afternoon and evening.

Extended Forecast...Periodic MVFR/IFR from convection Tue night as a cold front and a s/w upper trof move across the region. Improving conditions Wed with VFR dominating thereafter thru Sat.

MARINE

Tonight through Friday...After tonight's uncharacteristically quiet set of conditions winds and seas will ramp up considerably as Tuesday progresses. SCA conditions will likely develop over part of the area. Given the uncertainty and that we're talking most Tuesday night have held off on raising headlines at this time. Conditions will start to improve Wednesday even if only slowly but from Wednesday night onward the gradient grows very weak as there is no push of high pressure following FROPA.

ILM WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ099-107>110. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.