Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered rain showers will continue this morning then taper off for this afternoon

- Next weather system will bring more rain chances to the region for Monday-Tuesday along with chances for a few strong or possible severe storms on Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Scattered rain showers will continue this morning and gradually shift northeast of the area by mid to late afternoon, as upper- level wave moves across Kansas today and shifts into Missouri tonight. Cloudy skies and light southeast winds with some patchy areas of drizzle will be possible this Halloween evening. Things dry out for Sunday as upper level ridging builds over Kansas. Meanwhile current satellite water vapor imagery shows next weather system over the eastern Pacific. This system will move east across the Rockies and eject out into the central plains on Monday causing south winds to increase. The atmospheric destabilization potential hinges primarily on the timing of this upper-level wave ejecting into Kansas. Should morning showers/storms develop and persist into the afternoon, destabilization could be limited. However, wind shear levels are forecasted to strengthen throughout the afternoon and night time hours. Consequently, if instability builds alongside the increasing wind shear, a few strong to severe storms may develop on Monday.

Models show upper level system gradually shifting east of Kansas for late Tuesday afternoon with deformation zone of lift and associated rain showers pivoting across the area during the day. A lull in the precipitation activity looks to follow for Wednesday and Thursday with daytime highs near seasonal values for early November.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Main aviation concerns will be rain showers along with some lower ceilings.

Upper impulse is lifting into western OK with large area of 850-700mb moisture transport and upper diffluence resulting in a widespread area of light showers lifting across southern KS. Current thinking is that vis will be lowered to around 5sm once the area of showers move in. Most locations will continue to see VFR cigs overnight, with the exception of areas west of I-135, where some MVFR levels will be mixed-in. Larger area of showers is expected to lift out of the forecast area around or a couple hours before sunrise, with some iso-sct showers remaining on Sat.

ICT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.