Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Storm chances return to central Kansas late tonight into Tuesday morning, with increasing probabilities Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning across much of the area.

- Marginally severe storms and localized flooding are possible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

- This weeks warmup will be followed by much cooler air arriving on Sunday into early next week with additional chances for showers and storms over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Isolated or widely scattered showers and storms have already developed within the sfc trough axis across western KS. Some of this activity could brush parts of our central KS counties through the evening hours although the bulk of the activity is expected to remain north and west of our area of concern. A shortwave trough racing across the Northern Plains will drive a cold front south into the area late tonight. This frontal boundary is progged to move south and east across the area on Tuesday. That will result in another hot day for areas ahead of the front which includes much of southern and southeast KS where highs in the upper 90s/around 100 once again. Probabilities for showers and thunderstorms will increase along and behind the front on Tuesday afternoon. PWATs over 2 inches are forecast to return to the area leading to efficient rainfall with any storms that develop. MLCAPE of 1500+ combined with 30 knots of 0-6km shear may support some strong or marginally severe storms although mid-lvl lapse rates appear rather marginal. This activity could linger into the overnight hours as the LLJ noses into south central and southeast KS with some mid-lvl waa persisting across the area. Some showers could linger over parts of central KS early on Wed before the heat builds back into the area during the afternoon hours with above average temperatures anticipated.

The mid/upper ridge is expected to return on Thu-Fri bringing hot and dry conditions to the area. A shortwave trough emerging from the Rockies will bring increasing probabilities for showers and storms to the area late Fri and Fri night with little relief from the heat. Unsettled weather conditions may linger into Sat as the upper ridge shifts eastward while a more robust shortwave trough moves over the Northern Plains. This will eventually drive a strong cold front southward over the area late Saturday into Sunday ushering in more seasonable air through early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A frontal boundary will begin to make its way across the area later this morning and through the afternoon time frame. Winds ahead of the front will remain breezy out of the south, with winds turning northeasterly behind the front and gusting near 25 knots for central Kansas. LLWS will remain a concern through 12Z with this boundary nearing.

Low cigs are expected to develop behind the front in central Kansas along with the possibility for shower activity. Impacts from showers will be minimal and isolated, did not include in TAFs at this time due to uncertainty of localized impacts. A few thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of the front later in the afternoon, most likely impacting HUT and ICT. Kept mention of them minimal, again, due to uncertainty on timing and placement.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Hot and windy conditions will result in very high fire danger along and west of I-135 late this afternoon through the early evening hours. Southerly winds will be sustained at around 25-30 mph with gusts around 40-45 mph.

ICT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.