Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 924 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Light-moderate rain will develop northward into the TN Valley late Saturday afternoon, with a widespread coverage of rain anticipated from Saturday evening-Sunday morning. A few embedded thunderstorms may also occur (particularly across the southwestern portion of the forecast area).

- East-southeasterly gradient winds will strengthen to 15-20 MPH on Saturday (with gusts of 25-30 MPH), and these conditions will continue through Sunday.

- Low to medium chances (30-50%) for showers and a few thunderstorms will return during the middle part of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 924 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a low amplitude ridge will progress eastward across the southeastern CONUS over the course of the near term period, in advance of an amplifying southern stream trough (currently off the Pacific coast of southern CA/northern Baja) and a weaker preceding wave that will lift northeastward from the Upper Rio Grande Valley into the southern Plains. As this occurs, winds aloft across the local CWFA will back from WNW to SW and strengthen into the 15-25 knot range by 12Z Saturday, contributing to a notable increase in high-level clouds (which should become overcast in coverage later this afternoon). At the surface, our region will remain under the influence of a gradually strengthening high that will develop southeastward from WI into the northern Mid-Atlantic states by the end of the period, resulting in a developing CAD to the east of the central/southern Appalachians. This will allow light ENE winds today to gradually veer to ESE by Saturday morning. Although a few patches of virga will likely begin to appear region-wide this evening, we expect dry conditions to prevail through the period, with afternoon temps expected to reach the u70s-l80s in the valley prior to the decrease in insolation. Lows will be several degrees warmer (m50s-l60s) compared to the past few nights, with conditions less favorable for development of patchy mist/fog.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 924 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

During the day tomorrow, an amplifying southern stream trough will eject northeastward from the Four Corners region into the central High Plains, as a weaker preceding wave advances east- northeastward from the southern Plains into the western TN Valley. As this occurs, mid-level flow across much of the southern CONUS will back to the SW and strengthen (along with an accompanying increase in the SSE low-level jet to 15-25 knots). Present indications are that pockets of light-moderate rain will spread northwestward from the northeastern Gulf Coast throughout the day within the strengthening deep-layer WAA regime, likely expanding in coverage as it reaches our forecast area between 21-0Z. For this reason we will be increasing POPs region-wide during this timeframe. Otherwise, cloud bases will remain overcast and progressively fall throughout the day, yielding cooler afternoon highs (l-m 70s). It is also worth noting that east-southeasterly gradient flow between cold air damming to our east and pressure falls in the lee of the northern/central Rockies will increase to 15-20 MPH (with gusts of 25-30 MPH).

As the preceding mid-level wave tracks eastward and away from our region Saturday night, mid-level flow will veer to WSW and diminish. However, the low-level jet will veer to the south and strengthen further into the 25-35 knot range ahead of the primary southern stream trough as it begins to turn eastward into the MO Valley (along the northern rim of a strengthening subtropical ridge across northern Mexico and south TX). This configuration will support a general increase in rainfall coverage and intensity from Saturday evening through Sunday morning, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible (primarily across the southwestern portion of the forecast area, and in closer proximity to an axis of richer low-level moisture/CAPE). Beneficial storm total rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.5" are expected at this point.

Current thinking is that rain will gradually begin to diminish in coverage during the afternoon hours on Sunday as the decaying shortwave trough digs southeastward into eastern KY/TN and mid- level winds veer to the NW. However, with little change in the intensity/orientation of the low-level jet expected through 12Z Monday, widespread low stratus clouds and pockets of light rain or sprinkles will likely continue through the end of the period. Due to both clouds and precipitation, highs will fall back into the l-m 60s on Sunday, with overnight lows remaining in the l-m 50s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 742 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Northwest flow will become dominant aloft as the aforementioned trough responsible for the rain over the weekend begins to exit the eastern CONUS and upper ridging builds in ahead of our next system. After overcast skies and rain on Sunday, temperatures will rebound a bit on Monday with the building ridge to our west. Sfc high pressure over the Appalachians will keep dry NE flow in place and may be enough to result in clearing skies by Monday afternoon. A closed upper low will dig across Oklahoma and into the lower MS River Valley Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing increasing chances for rain and a few thunderstorms. Model trends over the past several days have been fairly inconsistent with this storm system, with today's runs continuing to slow the system down as well as pulling the sfc low farther south. Since the timing and evolution of this system will have big impacts on rainfall amounts and any potential for strong storms, we do not feel particularly confident in any specific details at this time. What we can speak to is the continued trend with a slower system, increasing our confidence that impacts to Election Day should be minimal with only low chances for rain (15-25%) at this time. Temperatures will remain near or just above normal for much of the long term, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions will continue at both terminals for the duration of the forecast period. However, a notable increase in Cs can be expected late this aftn into the evening, with high-lvl ceilings falling to arnd 12kft by the end of the period. Although some patches of virga will likely begin to appear this evening, no sfc precipitation is anticipated thru 18Z. Light NE sfc winds will progressively veer to ESE, with speeds increasing to 9G17 kts by 15Z.

HUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.