Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Early morning cold front will bring in strong winds from the northeast. Gusts up to 40-45 MPH are possible, as are early morning showers and storms. Severe weather is unlikely.

- Temperatures today may be the coolest in months! But warm temperatures return tomorrow through Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 108 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Early this morning, a low coming out of the Northern Plains will drag a cold front in from the north. This is expected to bring a rapid increase in winds from the northeast, with gusts likely in the 25-35 kts range, but occasional gusts up to 45 kts are possible. We are also expecting stratus to accompany the front. As the front pushes south of U.S. 36, there is a 30-40% chance it will fire off some convection. Most likely, we are just looking at some locally heavy rain with lightning and thunder. However, there is a 2-5% chance a strong cells forms and produces a 60 MPH wind gust, hail up to an inch, or flash flooding. This convection looks to start along and south of U.S. 36 around 10Z, and by 16Z it should be confined along and southeast of a line from Norton to Tribune. Lingering weak convection may persist into the mid afternoon, slowing moving eastward as the day progresses.

With CAA from the cold front and lingering cloud cover, we should be getting our first good taste of autumn today! Highs are expected to top out in the low 70s near the Tri-State border and upper 60s for the rest of the area. The strong northeasterly winds are expected to persist through the morning, but will gradually weaken in the midday and afternoon. There is a 15% chance the clouds break late this morning, which would increase temperatures into the low to mid 70s.

After sunset, an inverted 850 mb ridge axis stemming from the Upper Mississippi River Valley will work to weaken the winds and gradually make the northeasterly winds southerly by Wednesday morning. Ahead of the ridge in the evening, there may be enough forcing to cause some weak convection to occur along and east of KS 25. Chances for this convection to occur range from 30-50%, increasing further to the east. Most likely timing for these storms will be 3-9Z. Severe weather is not expected from these storms.

Tonight, stratus is expected to return to the area, but due to the cooler daytime temperatures, lows look to cool into the 50s, maybe low 60s in Gove and Graham counties.

Wednesday, the high pressure system that's been plaguing the southeastern CONUS for multiple days will retrograde and move west. This will work to clear out the sky Wednesday and strengthen southerly flow. This flow will promote gusts in the 15-30 kts range and draw in warm air, pushing highs back into the low 80 for most of the area. There is a 20% chance that a combination of lingering clouds and a more easterly component in the wind will keep parts of the CWA capped out in the upper 70s.

The 500 mb boundary on the northwestern edge of the high will be sitting over the CWA Wednesday evening. This gives us another 30-50% chance of convection in the evening and overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday. This convection may persist until around 9Z Thursday morning. The NBM is really pushing for this convection, but low- level support is lacking, reducing forecaster confidence in this convection occurring. Lows look to cool into the 60s again Wednesday night.

Thursday, southwesterly flow returns, and we can expect highs around 90. The cycle continues with another round of afternoon convection lasting into the night being possible.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 234 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

On Friday, an upper level low-pressure system over the Middle Rockies will be sliding towards the east over northern CONUS that will help bring in a cold front overnight and into Saturday morning. Sunday onward, there is some uncertainty about the upper-level ridging over the U.S. and Canadian border. On Monday, guidance is still uncertain with the ridging to the north, but there is consistency that embedded shortwave troughs would be going through the area. This is forecast to bring cooler temperatures and slight chances for showers. Temperatures Friday will be the warmest during the period with afternoon highs being in the mid to upper 80s. From Saturday onward, temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s as the cold front moves in and a possible secondary cold front Monday. There is medium confidence (40-55%) that temperatures would remain in the 70s.

Showers are also possible with the uncertainty of the upper- level pattern. As the cold front moves through Friday night and into Saturday morning, there is high confidence (75%) for overnight rain. However, there is some uncertainty with the timing of the cold front as deterministic guidance shows the front being further west than ensemble guidance.

On Sunday morning, with the confidence in the upper-level pattern starting to deteriorate, confidence for showers also begins to decrease heavily (75% to 30%) and would likely occur in the early morning hours. On Monday, there could be some showers favoring south of I-70 as possible embedded shortwave troughs could move through the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

IFR and potentially VLIFR ceilings are possible for KMCK and are expected for KGLD this morning. A cold front will be pushing in through the early morning hours, bringing with it a wave of low stratus, a 30% chance of showers for KGLD, and a 15% chance of fog for both KMCK and KGLD. With the front, expect winds to rapidly become northeasterly and increase in speed. Likely wind gusts will be in the 25-35 kts range, but we cannot rule out some gusts up to 45 kts. Ceilings will gradually lift back to VFR during the morning and by the mid-afternoon, winds will have weakened some. Tuesday night, stratus looks to return for both sites.

GLD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.