Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances return Friday PM with quick-hitting showers and storms for the lower elevations and flurries above 10,000 feet.

- Another round of 1 to 3 inches of rain for parts of southeast Utah and Southwest Colorado is possible Sunday into Monday.

- Flooding/flash flooding concerns increase Sunday into Monday, especially for areas that have saturated soils from last week's rain. A Flood Watch has been issued.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1011 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:

A shortwave trough passes through the region Friday evening bringing a quick-hitting round of showers and storms to the region that will favor the higher terrain. Warm surface temperatures support rain being the primary precipitation type, with light snow possible above 10,000 feet. If thunderstorms develop, quick bursts of heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flooding issues, especially over areas still recovering from the last round of flooding.

WETTER AND UNSETTLED BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY:

A stronger surge of moisture an Atmospheric River (AR) arrives by Sunday. This AR will begin taking a southern track through Baja California, propagating through the Desert Southwest. There continues to be some uncertainty in the northern extent of the richer moisture, although confidence is high enough to introduce a Flood Watch for parts of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado that feature fatigued soils from recent rainfall and flooding. This is where there is the highest potential for 1 to 3 inches of rainfall Sunday into Monday. Please see the Hydrology section below for additional information on the potential for flooding and flash flooding with this system.

A cold front pushes through from northwest to southeast Sunday night into Monday, with snow levels dropping to around 8,000 feet by Monday morning and close to 7,000 ft by the evening as colder air pushes behind the front. Slippery stretches are likely over mountain passes. Keep an eye on the forecast if you plan to travel on Monday. Precipitation will taper off Monday evening, with cooler and drier conditions anticipated Tuesday and beyond.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 453 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Expect VFR conditions across the region through about 23Z when widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms move in from the southwest producing MVFR to IFR conditions at KDRO, KTEX KCNY KGJT and KVEL thereafter. These lower ceilings and visibilities will spread to the east and north overnight impacting KMTJ by 06Z and KGUC, KRIL, KASE, KEGE and KHDN after 06Z. Expect conditions below ILS breakpoints at most sites as the showers move in. Winds will be generally light and terrain driven overnight becoming southwesterly between 18Z and 00Z.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1054 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Low pressure begins to dig southward from the PacNW on Friday, tapping into a fetch of Pacific moisture that will evolve into an atmospheric river streaming into the Desert Southwest this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday and Saturday, but totals will remain on the lower side. However, a few thunderstorms could produce impactful downpours on saturated soils left over from last weekend's historic flooding.

Deeper moisture develops Saturday night into early Sunday. This is expected to produce widespread rainfall with stronger rain rates across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado Sunday and Monday, mostly below 10,000 feet. Some area rivers are currently forecast to go into action stage. Additionally, a growing concern lies in the potential for runoff around steep terrain in the region. This could produce rock, mud, and debris flows onto roadways, as well as flash flood-prone burn scars, washes, slot canyons, and arroyos. Current guidance supports 1 to 3 inches of rainfall for far southeast Utah and portions of southwest Colorado. As a result, a Flood Watch has been issued for 5 AM Sunday through 11 AM Monday.

Outdoor enthusiasts, motorists, and residents of areas recently impacted by flooding are encouraged to remain tuned into the forecast in the coming days.

GJT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CO...Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning for COZ019-021>023. UT...Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning for UTZ022-028-029.