Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Tonight: As a weak warm front north through our forecast area, areas of at least light fog and possibly pockets of dense fog (visibility 1/4 mile or less) could develop...primarily in counties north of Interstate 80.

- Also tonight: Patchy drizzle along with isolated-scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms could occur almost anywhere

- Saturday-Sunday: Although it certainly won't rain "non-stop", potential for isolated-scattered rain showers persists especially Saturday daytime-night, with Sunday daytime a "mostly dry" break in between upper waves.

- Sunday night-Tues night: A large-scale upper level low pressure system and associated strong surface low gradually trudges eastward through the Central Plains, bringing first a combo of somewhat-strong southerly winds, widespread rain and POSSIBLE strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms to our area, then followed by fairly strong north-northwest behind a cold front Mon night-Tuesday (gusts 40-50 MPH possible).

- Wednesday-Friday: In theory, this marks a "largely dry" stretch in the wake of the early-week system. However, it's not necessarily "guaranteed dry", as it's possible that a pesky/minor upper wave or two could pass through.

- Temperature-wise next 7 days: An overall "typical" late- Oct/early-Nov pattern with high temps mostly a mix of 50s/60s, but with low temps leaning toward the warmer side of things with lows mainly ranging upper 30s-mid 50s (STILL no truly hard/killing freeze in sight for those places that didn't have one back on Oct. 17th)

DISCUSSION

Issued at 414 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS/PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES:

As evidenced by the fairly lengthly list of KEY MESSAGES above, our weather pattern remains quite active. On a positive note, although bringing more beneficial rain (at least longer term beneficial) with most of our forecast area (CWA) very generally expected to receive at least 1-2" of rain between tonight and Tuesday, in the shorter-term this pattern is obviously wreaking havoc for those trying to wrap up/continue harvest. For those folks, HOPEFULLY the latter half of next week continues to maintain its current MOSTLY dry look.

As for key forecast uncertainties... - Of note in the very short term: Will at least patchy dense fog impact our northern counties (mainly north of I-80) overnight?

- Looking into early next week: certainly the "highlight" of the entire 7-day forecast right now is to what degree we are impacted by the large-scale/strong/deep low pressure system mainly Sunday night-Tuesday. While widespread rain and moderately-strong winds (both ahead of and behind it) are looking increasingly likely, what is still a SOMEWHAT- CONCERNING UNKNOWN is whether (or not) we see a round of strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms along the advancing cold front/surface low pressure system Monday afternoon-early evening? At this time, various models (ECMWF/GFS/NAM) suggest that both instability and perhaps to some degree deep-layer shear could be on the lower-end of the spectrum for any kind of "higher end" severe storm threat, but these trends bear close watching. At least for now, SPC has kept it's 15 percent "slight risk equivalent" area slightly south-southeast of our CWA on the latest Day 4 (Monday) severe storm outlook, but tools such as CSU machine learning severe probs currently paint at least low chances within primarily the eastern half of our CWA. Obviously these details will surely come into better focus over the weekend and Monday nears.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Fri. Nov. 6): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM: Overall no big surprises today. In short, the morning saw a smattering of weak thunderstorms mainly in our far east-central counties, along with some dense fog in southwesterly counties. In the wake of these things, much of the late-morning through mid-afternoon was simply continued cloudy under fairly widespread low stratus. However, especially within the last hour another round of very spotty showers/perhaps a few rumbles of thunder have started affecting mainly part of our KS zones, as water vapor satellite/short-term model data confirm that the leading edge of lift is arriving from the next/incoming upper wave lifting our way out of the Southern High Plains/western KS area. At the surface, a weak warm front is evident lifting very slowly north through our KS zones, with winds to its south trying to turn more southerly with time, while most of our CWA is reporting light (5-10 MPH) southeast winds north of the boundary. High temps on track to top out 60s most areas, but ranging from upper 50s far north (Ord area) to low 70s far southeast (Thayer/Mitchell/Jewell counties).

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Sticking to the basics: High confidence in continued widespread stratus clouds with some patchy drizzle almost anywhere, with at least isolated-scattered showers/weak thunderstorms also lifting north into more of our area and possible almost anywhere. Certainly the MAIN CONCERN overnight is whether fog becomes dense enough to warrant a possible Advisory...which would seem most favored to occur within our Nebraska counties along/especially north of I-80. Given only medium confidence in truly widespread/truly dense fog development, we've opted to hold off for now on any formal Advisory, but fog is obviously highlighted as a possible concern here and in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). Breezes overnight turn more southerly as the warm front lifts north.

- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: These 24 hours are simply best described as "a varied mix of dry weather interspersed with passing showers". It's just impossible to truly guarantee any particular area to remain dry more than a few hours at a time, given persistent weak lift from the upper wave lifting east-northeast through our region. Put another way, trick-or-treaters should be ready for some passing (mainly light) rain showers, just in case. Compared to today, south- southeast winds will be a little breezier, with sustained speeds commonly 10-15 MPH and gusts up to around 20 MPH. High temps were largely unchanged with most areas a few degrees either side of 60 degrees, while lows Saturday night were nudged up slightly to mainly low-mid 50s given widespread clouds.

- SUNDAY DAYTIME: Although we cannot totally rule out some very spotty showers or patchy drizzle, for the most part this should be a brief "dry break" in between systems. With continued plentiful clouds, temps will only climb very slightly at best, with most areas aimed low-mid 60s.

- SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: See above for various references to this ~ 60 hour time frame, as a large-scale/strong upper level trough and associated surface low crosses the Central Plains. Possible hazards include strong (maybe severe?) thunderstorms and moderately-strong winds. Temperature-wise, highs mainly 60s-70s Monday, then only 50s Tuesday behind the cold front.

- WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: While especially those trying to finish/continue harvest really need to "cheer" for this to remain a dry/mostly dry stretch (and confidence is high that it WILL BE mostly dry), there are some hints that a weak wave or two could bring pesky shower chances from time to time. High temps mainly 50s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ceilings have recently fallen into the 500-1500ft range tonight with bases not expected to rise above 2,000ft through the remainder of the period (2,500ft for KGRI). Ceiling heights should generally be at their lowest point of the night with bases likely to rise back into MVFR classifications for much of the 10-23z time range. Bases overnight Saturday seem probable (60% chance) to return back to IFR classifications.

As for visibility, though fog is possible to form in a few central Nebraska areas tonight, it does not appear to be too probable for the KEAR/KGRI vicinities (30% chance). The other possible aviation impact today will be the presence of a few light rain showers. Overall, models do not appear to suggest persisting showers, though a few off-and-on periods of light rain is fairly probable during the day (especially between 14 and 23z timeframe (50-60% shower chances). This being said, there should naturally be more breaks between precipitation periods than ongoing rain or drizzle.

Winds starting out of the south between 5-10kts tonight will gradually increase across the later morning to early afternoon hours. Wind speeds will peak between 10-15kts during the day with gusts as high as 25kts possible at times. Wind directions will additionally bend gradually towards a southeastward directions (150-160 degrees) after 18z.

GID WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041- 046-047-060-061-072. KS...None.