Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainy conditions will continue through Tuesday with the highest rain amounts Monday and Tuesday.

- Total rainfall amounts are only expected to range from around a quarter of an inch to just over an inch.

- High temperatures will mostly be in the 50s and 60s, except on Monday with highs in the 60s and 70s.

- Low temperatures will range from the 30s to 60s with temperatures in the 30s appearing beginning Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

An upper level low pressure is over Kansas and Nebraska. This has resulted in increased upper lift across the region with rain showers. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are mostly out of the south to southeast at around 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to around 20 MPH. High temperatures today will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Rain showers are expected to decrease in coverage tonight with low temperatures generally ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Light rain showers and/or drizzle are expected to continue into Sunday with south to southeast winds continuing across the area. Temperatures on Sunday will be a little warmer than today with a strengthening surface trough to the west. Rain showers with some thunderstorms will increase across the area Sunday night as an upper trough to the west moves closer to the region. Low temperatures Sunday night will be warmer than the previous night (lows mainly in the mid 50s to low 60s) as the surface trough to the west expands across the area.

The upper trough will move over the Central Plains on Monday with a cold front moving into the area from the west and northwest. While there is some uncertainty with high temperatures on Monday due to the timing of the front, expect highs to generally range from the mid 60s to mid/upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area on Monday. Storm chances will increase along the front late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Low temperatures Monday night are expected to range from the low 40s to low 50s. Rain chances (up to around 50% chance) continue on Tuesday with the upper trough/low over the area. There are some model differences/uncertainty with high temperatures on Tuesday due to uncertainty in the strength of the cooler airmass but expect highs to mostly be in the 50s. Mostly dry conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday with high temperatures generally in the 50s and 60s. Low temperatures Tuesday night, Wednesday night, Thursday night, and Friday night are expected to be in the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low ceilings and cloud bases will be the primary aviation concern overnight tonight with cloud bases dropping down into LIFR/IFR classifications for most of 7-19z timeframe. Though dense fog is not expected to become a widespread issue tonight, periods of reduced visibility from fog may still be possible through mainly 16z. Generally speaking, conditions may be quicker to deteriorate and slower to recover for KEAR in comparison to KGRI. Though cloud bases will rise some during the day Sunday, it is unlikely for the overcast ceilings to lift out of the MVFR category.

As for precipitation, most of the showers tonight have subsided with the next potential for light showers increasing late Sunday afternoon to evening. South to southeasterly winds tonight will remain under 10kts with speeds increasing across the morning hours. After 18z, sustaining wind speeds near 15kts will gusts as high as 20-30kts during the remainder of the day and evening Sunday.

GID WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.