Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the whole area this afternoon and evening. Heat index values of around 105 to 120 degrees are expected.

- There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms late this afternoon into this evening for areas mainly north of Highway 6. These storms may produce wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

- An Extreme Heat Warning continues into Monday evening for north central Kansas. South central and central Nebraska are in a Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening until 10 PM Monday.

- There is a marginal risk of severe storms Monday evening and night for areas mainly west of the Tri-Cities area. These storms may produce wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Conditions are heating up outside with temperatures in the 90s and triple digits and heat index values ranging from around 106 degrees and around 120 degrees. Temperatures are expected to continue to heat up this afternoon with highs ranging from the mid 90s to around 105 degrees. A few isolated areas, mainly east of Highway 281, may experience heat index values between 115 and 120 degrees. The whole area is in an Extreme Heat Warning. Winds are expected to increase a bit out of the south this afternoon but will decrease this evening. An approaching boundary from the north this evening may result in showers and thunderstorms (primarily along and north of Highway 6 in Nebraska). The best chances (15% to 20%) will be north and west of the Tri-Cities area between 6 PM and 10 PM. Some of these storms have the potential to be strong to severe with wind gusts up to around 60 MPH being the main hazard. The storms are expected to weaken as they move southward. The Tri-Cities area may experience a few showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm around 10 to 11 PM. Low temperatures tonight will only cool to around the mid 70s across south central Nebraska and the upper 70s to low 80s in north central Kansas.

A north to northeast wind shift will begin moving into the area on Monday. This boundary does not appear like it will have much impact on temperatures, but models are showing an increase of moisture behind the boundary. Winds are expected to increase out of the northeast behind the boundary which may help to mix out some of the low-level moisture. There are uncertainties as to how much of an influence this boundary will have on temperatures, moisture, and cloud cover for Monday. There is higher confidence across north central Kansas for the combination of temperatures (around 100 to 106 degrees) and moisture to produce heat index values near or above 110 degrees for Monday. For this reason, the Heat Advisory across this area was upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning which is in effect until 10 PM Monday. There is lower confidence (due to the above mentioned factors) across south central and central Nebraska so those areas were not upgraded at this time. Although, the Nebraska counties bordering Kansas have the highest likelihood of reaching Extreme Heat criteria on Monday and there is fairly high confidence (around 70%) that some areas in these counties may have heat index values near/around 110 degrees on Monday. Heat index values across our Nebraska counties are expected to range from around 101 in Ord to around 106 to 110 degrees across the far southern row of counties. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible (up to around a 50% chance) Monday evening and night as an upper disturbance moves overhead from the west. The highest chances will be across western portions of the area (mainly west of the Tri-Cities area). Some of these storms may become strong to marginally severe with wind gusts up to around 60 MPH being the main threat. The showers and storms will move eastward as the night continues.

Cooler temperatures are expected beginning Tuesday (highs in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s) as a surface high moves across the area. High temperatures in the 80s and 90s will continue through the end of the week. Low temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. Various rain and storm chances will continue Tuesday through Thursday night as upper disturbances move over the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a chance of wind shear between 04z and 08z but confidence is not high enough to include at this time. Winds are expected to increase out of the south this afternoon with gusts possibly reaching up to around 20 knots. Winds will weaken this evening and become more southeast before becoming variable ahead of a north to northeast wind shift around 13z to 15z. Winds are expected to increase by 18z Monday out of the northeast.

GID WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007- 017>019.