Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with light winds or decreasing winds are expected today.

- The next round of widespread showers are expected to move in Thursday night and exiting late Saturday. 0.50" to 1.00" amounts are possible in the eastern zones.

DISCUSSION

SYNOPTIC SETUP: Strong low pressure over south-central Canada will continue moving away allowing surface low pressure over the northern Rockies to overtop the CWA this afternoon. This will allow for decreasing NW winds and decreasing clouds across the eastern zones.

The next system is dropping into the Pacific NW from the NW. It is expected to continue dropping south and into northern California Wednesday and Thursday before lifting into the northern Rockies late Thursday or Friday. With dewpoints expected to be in the 50s and 60s Friday, showers and thunderstorms can be expected. Models are showing the system to cut-off and drift east allowing things to gradually dry out Saturday and Saturday night.

Rain totals with this system could be close to an inch in some places in the east with places in the west at or below a quarter inch.

Ensembles for next week are showing some drying and slightly warmer temps.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: - Mainly rode with NBM numbers for this forecast package.

- Confidence in rain chances this weekend are moderate. Confidence in rain totals are low. NBM lowered rain totals with this latest run.

TFJ

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0545Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Mainly VFR clouds with some MVFR clouds will gradually exit this morning as high pressure moves in from the west. Then some mid level clouds (at or above 12K ft AGL) move in during the afternoon, thickest over KGGW, KOLF and KSDY airports.

SFC WIND: Northwest winds will become light and variable by afternoon then become light East later Tuesday.

TFJ

GGW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.