Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect with temperatures expected near 100 today.

- A smoke plume over the region will reduce visibility this afternoon and evening.

- Hot temps with near 100s may occur each afternoon through the remainder of the week but some overnight recoveries are possible beginning tonight.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper ridging over the western U.S. will remain the dominant force this weekend with triple digit heat during the afternoon hours today. The Extreme Heat Warning continues through 10pm this evening.

Satellite showcases a large smoke plume stretched from eastern Oregon across northern Montana. Visibility and air quality are lowering across the region but not quite low enough for head lines.

Ensembles continue to show the hot temperatures continuing through at least mid-week and possibly into the weekend with highs in the 90s to around 100 degrees each day. Conditions will also be mostly dry, although there may be the occasional shortwave to trigger thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

NBM Deviations include HRRR/RAP blends to enhance visibility reductions due to smoke through the day.

AVIATION

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR - MVFR.

DISCUSSION: Upper ridging will continue to provide hot temperatures to the region. Smoke and haze will impact visibility through the TAF period with MVFR conditions possible.

DENSITY ALTITUDE: Increased density altitude is expected in the afternoon and evenings through Wednesday as temps near or exceed 100. Extra power and longer runway will be needed for takeoffs.

GGW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels- Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips- Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Southwest Phillips-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.