Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers (40-60% coverage) will continue through Saturday morning with a drying trend Saturday afternoon.

- Another storm system is forecast to sweep across the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. There is a low risk of severe weather, but details will continue to be refined over the weekend.

- Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Tuesday after the showers and storms move east.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

The rest of today and tonight are shaping up to be pretty damp across North and Central Texas. This is largely due to the region being under an anomalously moisture-rich environment; particularly in the mid and upper-levels. There isn't much in the way of a surface feature today, but a well organized mid-level shortwave trough should deepen a weak surface low that is forecast to slide across the Hill County->Brazos Valley->Southeast Texas tonight and tomorrow. A combination of ascent from the shortwave trough and surface low (and its attendant low-level isentropic ascent) will result in widespread clouds and rain across North and Central Texas over the next 24-30 hours. Outside of precip...generally light winds, mostly cloudy skies with mild and humid conditions should stick around for the entire short-term forecast period.

Regarding precip, it should largely come in 3 rounds. The first moved through most of the region earlier this morning and should fade to the northeast early this afternoon. Once this round moves east, it should mainly be dry with 10-20% coverage of and on light rain/drizzle until the second round moves in. The second round is starting to move into Western North and Central Texas now. This area is projected to slowly move east, bringing a shield of light rain to most of the area tonight and tomorrow morning. The third round is more uncertain and would take place across the eastern third of our forecast area tomorrow afternoon as a trailing minor-shortwave trough (lift sandwiched between ~800-600 mb) swings through.

There is virtually no instability for this system to work with, so despite ample moisture and lift, rain amounts will remain very light. Average rain amounts of less than 0.10" is most likely for most, but a few (~10% of the area) spots are likely to receive upwards of 0.25", mainly across Central and East Texas closer to the surface low. The lack of instability also makes the threat of thunderstorms very low for the duration of this event.

All rain should come to an end/move out of the area by the time Saturday evening festivities begin. The weather won't be bad Saturday evening, but it could be better. The main downside will be cloudy and humid conditions, but at least it won't be rainy, windy, or overly warm or cool. We will have to monitor for fog development late Saturday night into Sunday morning, but it does not appear that we will have enough cooling to support fog at this time.

Bonnette

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Sunday's weather should be pretty nice since we will be between weather systems as the current system moves east and our next system starts to develop over the Western CONUS. The winds will become southerly by Sunday afternoon and gradually increase in speed Sunday night and Monday as our next system starts and strong height falls start to overspread the Rockies. In response, a surface low along the leeside of the Rockies over Colorado/Nebraska will rapidly deepen over the course of the day Monday. As a result...Sunday and Monday should be pretty warm with daytime highs about 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Monday should also be pretty breezy with south winds around 15-25 mph and gusts around 30-35 mph.

This surface low is forecast to get kicked east as a deep upper- low ejects out of the Rockies late Monday. This will send its attendant cold front south/east into and through North and Central Texas sometime Monday night into Tuesday. The timing of this system continues to vary depending on the guidance used, but most of the solutions have dialed-in on a 12(ish) hour timeframe centered around the early-morning hours on Monday. Most of the guidance also has the front (and the subsequent line of showers and storms) exiting into East Texas by Tuesday afternoon.

Since there will be very strong ascent moving overtop of a warm and moist environment, along with sufficient shear and instability, we have relatively high confidence that a line of showers and thunderstorms will develop along the cold front as it moves through. Looking through forecast soundings (and understanding the conceptual model of severe-wind producing QLCS systems for North Texas), there will be a low threat of strong to severe storms along this line, primarily along and north of the Red River where mid-level winds are more orthogonal to the surface front/QLCS. The extent of the severe threat will largely depend on how deep the mid-level trough is able to get. As it stands right now, about 60% of the global guidance keeps the trough far enough north to limit the severe threat in our region, but 40% of the guidance supports a deeper trough which would increase the severe threat. Finer details like this (and if there will be any kind of reasonable tornado threat) will continue to be refined as new data is evaluated, so for now it's best to just advise to keep up with the forecast through the weekend.

Precip should come to an end pretty quickly after the leading edge of the line moves through, with the sun coming out a few hours later. Although most of Tuesday (particularly in the afternoon) will be dry, it will be breezy. As it stands right now, our current post-frontal wind forecast for Tuesday has northwest winds 15-20 mph with guts to around 30 mph. While these wind speeds aren't too bad for North and Central Texas...any locations that have outdoor tents, etc. for Election Day may consider taking the proper wind precautions.

After this system moves east Tuesday night, high pressure should build into the region in the middle parts of next week with temperatures slightly above the seasonal norms. If you've kept up with weather headlines in recent months, you are probably aware that El Nino has returned in full-force. Taking a glance at the extended guidance, it looks like it should start to affect our local weather late next week onward with the near steady presence of a split-flow jet stream overtop of the northern Pacific that moves into Texas. This will open the door for several systems to spin up and bring rain to the area in the 8-14 day timeframe. Stay tuned for this!

Bonnette

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

..D10 TAF

Unsettled conditions will continue through the TAF period for D10. Winds will generally be easterly this evening into the day tomorrow, but may be more variable (060-140) at times. Any operational impacts due to wind shifts should be limited, as wind speeds will remain AOB 7 KTS.

While CAM guidance keeps any -RA coverage isolated to scattered, an ongoing precip shield will continue to lift north/east into D10, with any terminal impacts (5-6 SM VIS due to scattered -RA) timed for after 03Z. By 12Z Saturday, widespread MVFR CIGs will start to develop for the D10 terminals along a warm sector lifting north and are expected to persist throughout the day. Latest guidance does have a signal for some IFR CIGS (20-30% chance, 16-18Z), but confidence is too low for TAF inclusion at this time.

Going into tomorrow afternoon, any ongoing -RA activity will shift northeast and out of the area accompanied by a more northerly wind shift (360-030), while MVFR CIGs continue.

..KACT

Most of what was mentioned above will also be true for KACT, with an earlier timetable than the D10 sites and higher confidence of MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings. Tonight and into the early morning Saturday, VCSH and -RA will continue as a precip shield expands across Central Texas. Winds will stay E-NE at 5-6 KTS, until shifting more northerly after 17Z Saturday. Model guidance sets up a weak warm frontal boundary just south of Waco, which will drag consistent OVC010-OVC020 MVFR CIGs starting primarily after 06Z. While the current TAF only includes MVFR CIGs, there is a 30-50% chance of IFR ceilings late tonight/early tomorrow morning.

Precip will change over from BR to RA as Saturday morning progresses, with any ongoing rain shifting out of the area after 16Z.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FWD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.