Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light rain showers and drizzle are expected mainly south of US Highway 2 during the day Saturday, lingering into the evening.

- Widespread rain is expected across the region Monday into Tuesday, with medium to high chances for at least 0.5" of rainfall.

- Warmer than normal temperatures continue, particularly Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

..Synopsis

An upper ridge is building into the Northern Plains with a southwest flow pattern. This will trend temperatures toward above average, particularly by Sunday and Monday. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a plume of moisture moving northward into the region to allow for low level clouds to begin overspreading the area late tonight. The way this upper ridging builds with moisture transport will promote a pattern with low stratus, fog and drizzle - especially with a low sun angle. Chances for drizzle and light showers peak Saturday afternoon and linger into the evening, especially south of US Highway 2. The expected cloud cover continues to lower confidence in exactly how warm temperatures get over the next few days. With at least partial sun, temperatures could soar well into the 60s on Sunday.

..Rain Event Monday/Tuesday

Getting into early to mid next week, ensemble guidance is mostly in agreement on a persistent deformation band of rain as an upper shortwave trough in the Southwest translates into the Central Plains. While the best forcing looks to remain south of our area, there could be enough influence from this feature to bring the next round of light to moderate rain into the forecast, heavily favoring the southern zones. A few ensemble members keep Grand Forks and points north mostly dry given a further south storm track. Monday-Tuesday Night (48 hour) probabilities for at least a half inch of rainfall range from around 80% in Fergus Falls down to 40% for Langdon at this time. A lack of cold air behind the system results in near zero chance for frozen precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions should prevail until around 12Z with mostly broken mid level clouds. Moisture advects into the area with low stratus developing Saturday from south to north, widespread MVFR with areas of IFR ceilings possible by 18Z. Rain chances increase mainly in southeast ND and west central MN during the day Saturday, but chances remain highest (under 50%) at KFAR and KBJI from 18Z-00z. A weak gradient and lighter winds aloft will result in mainly light east to southeast winds prevailing through the TAF period (10 kts or less).

FGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.