Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers with wetting rain impacts to outdoor activities should end west to east late afternoon into the evening.

- Winds gusting to 50 mph develop later this evening into the early morning hours Tuesday mainly towards the Devils Lake Basin and west of the Red River Valley.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

..Synopsis

Strong mid/upper low centered near northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota and southern Saskatchewan will continue to slide northeast through tonight. This system is responsible for the ongoing rain and expected period of windy conditions tonight. The evolution of the larger scale pattern over the next 7 days will initially be complicated across the Northern Plains as stalled troughing to the west and weaker ridging in the central CONUS places us in a split- flow type set-up before the upstream trough breaks loose. Trend should be for warmer temperatures than the last 3 days, however due to the flatter nature of the ridging, we should be mild rather than hot. As climate averages are in the lower 70s and dropping towards the upper 60s by the end of this month, this pattern with some locations in the mid to upper 70s is above average but not that unseasonable.

Regarding precipitation chances beyond today; there is a low chance for a light shower/sprinkle Tuesday afternoon with cyclonic flow and CAA aloft lingering in our north (wetting rain not expected). There is a weaker/progressive mid level shortwave Tuesday (main wave in the northern stream in Canada) otherwise better chances for wetting rain do not arrive until Friday-Sunday as the upstream trough breaks loose and tracks over the Northern Plains. Evolution/details remain variable and at this time this should be a much weaker trough passage than what we are seeing today lowering the chance for widespread wetting rain.

..Rain Showers Today

The main area of rain is continuing to transition east over northwest MN with scattered showers and some areas of drizzle due to lingering deeper BL saturation in southeast BL flow. The main dry slot featuring well defined subsidence is already moving across western ND towards eastern ND and organized shower activity should exit our region west to east. Drizzle/lower level rain processes will be harder to pin down and may linger along with light fog into the evening before clearing as winds start to shift more to the southwest in the BL. In any case, dry conditions are favored by late evening.

..Winds Tonight

A cold front already starting to push east over wester ND will arrive later this evening and increased CAA 925MB will result in dry adiabatic mixed layer off the surface. While there may be a shallow nocturnal inversion, pressure rises and strong CAA at 925MB should help create at least a period of stronger winds from the west then northwest as the front passes. Winds near the top of the mixed layer may be near 50kt over parts of the Devils Lake Basin, and this raises the potential for a few localized gusts 58mph+, though more frequent gusts with the period of stronger winds would be 45-50mph. Due to the direction of the winds and orientation of unidirectional flow through the mixed layer being westerly it is less favorable for stronger gusts east of the Red River Valley escarpment, which matches higher resolution guidance in placement of advisory conditions mainly west of the valley in the 10pm-7am period. There is still potential for a few gusts 45-50 mph farther east or south than the current advisory, however location/duration/coverage are much less certain due to the previously mentioned flow/wind direction. It will be something to monitor in the event we have to expand the advisory based on trends this evening.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Some lingering IFR at the MN airports, which will clear out in the next few hours as winds shift to the southwest. A bit of fog has developed along the west edge of the stratus deck, but not widespread and does not seem like it will impact the TAF sites at this point. Winds around 10 to 20 kts in the clear area that has mainly southwesterly winds. Speeds start really picking up later tonight as winds shift to the west and more cloud cover wraps around the backside of the system. Gusts up above 30 kts, over 40 kts at KDVL, and a return to MVFR conditions for a while during the late overnight and early Tuesday hours. Winds will slowly diminish during the day tomorrow, and skies will clear out again before noon.

FGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006-007-014-015- 024-026-028-029-038-054. MN...None.