EPZ Area Forecast Discussion d61918c2-d06c-4041-b483-5750a6cf9b66

000 FXUS64 KEPZ 272330 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 530 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026...New AVIATION...

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Hot temperatures persisting for the rest of the week, running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Lowland highs 100 to 107 each afternoon, posing a risk of heat-related illnesses.

- Rain chances will be limited to the high elevations and Southwest New Mexico this week. Isolated storms will be capable of brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and localized flash flooding.

- Some moisture from Arizona and Sonora will work into southwestern New Mexico on Tuesday, and may bring a one-day uptick in thunderstorm chances there.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Upper high pressure will continue to spin broadly over northern NM and the TX/OK Panhandle today through Thursday. Upper high begins shifting towards the Four Corners region Friday and throughout the weekend. Expect thunderstorm chances each afternoon with a focus over the area mountains (Gila region and Sacramento Mtns) and western locations bordering Arizona. Tuesday looks like it could have an uptick in storm activity in southwestern NM Tuesday evening. CAMs are suggesting a large complex of storms in northwest Mexico which will push in better moisture to the southwestern portions of the CWA later tonight. This push of moisture may help set the stage for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Looks like an area of surface convergence is possible as well. Areas of flash flooding will be possible. 0-6km shear values in this area will be around 30-35KT which is sufficient for some organized cells. Wednesday and onward we keep our storm chances with a focus over the area mountains and western locations.

As far as temperatures go, the area will remain HOT the next 7 days. Temperatures will generally be 7-10 degrees above normal. A Heat Advisory is in effect for several lowland locations including Las Cruces, Hatch, the El Paso metro, and the lower Valley today and tomorrow. Triple digit readings will be common across the lowlands for the week ahead. May need to extend the Heat Advisory potentially through Friday. High temperatures will be close or will reach Heat Advisory criteria (max temperatures greater than or equal to 105F) during this time. This will be an extended heat wave, so please take the heat seriously.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Isolated TSRA across SW NM next few hours. Gusts up to 35 knots for KDMN through 03Z. Skies FEW-SCT100, BKN200 this evening, becoming SCT150 overnight as TS diminishes. Gusty west winds from distant outflows leading to 250-290 at 10 to 15 knots overnight. Will likely need mention of TS for S NM sites Tuesday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Generally low fire weather concerns for the week ahead. Min RHs across the desert lowlands will be near critical to critical each day with percentages of around 13-20% each afternoon. Area mountain min RHs will be 25-40%. Storm chances exist each afternoon with a focus over the area mountains and locations along and west of the Continental Divide. Looks like there will be an uptick in storm activity and coverage tomorrow afternoon and evening for the Gila region and lowland locations west of the Rio Grande. Temperatures will remain hot each afternoon with lowland temperatures in the upper 90s and triple digits, mountain areas with highs of 75F to 90F.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Location	Tonight	Tomorrow	Tomorrow night	Next day	Tonight	Tomorrow	Tomorrow night	Next day
	Temperatures				Chance of Precipitation
El Paso	79 ℉	105 ℉	79 ℉	104 ℉	10%	0%	10%	0%
Sierra Blanca	71 ℉	101 ℉	70 ℉	99 ℉	0%	10%	0%	0%
Las Cruces	73 ℉	103 ℉	72 ℉	102 ℉	10%	0%	20%	0%
Alamogordo	77 ℉	103 ℉	74 ℉	102 ℉	10%	10%	10%	10%
Cloudcroft	58 ℉	80 ℉	56 ℉	78 ℉	10%	20%	10%	10%
Truth or Consequences	76 ℉	102 ℉	74 ℉	101 ℉	10%	10%	50%	0%
Silver City	68 ℉	95 ℉	66 ℉	94 ℉	10%	50%	50%	30%
Deming	73 ℉	104 ℉	72 ℉	103 ℉	10%	10%	20%	10%
Lordsburg	73 ℉	100 ℉	72 ℉	100 ℉	10%	10%	40%	10%
West El Paso Metro	80 ℉	104 ℉	79 ℉	103 ℉	10%	0%	10%	0%
Dell City	74 ℉	104 ℉	73 ℉	102 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fort Hancock	78 ℉	107 ℉	77 ℉	107 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Loma Linda	72 ℉	98 ℉	71 ℉	96 ℉	10%	0%	10%	0%
Fabens	77 ℉	105 ℉	77 ℉	104 ℉	10%	0%	10%	0%
Santa Teresa	76 ℉	102 ℉	75 ℉	102 ℉	10%	0%	10%	0%
White Sands HQ	80 ℉	104 ℉	79 ℉	103 ℉	10%	0%	20%	0%
Jornada Range	76 ℉	104 ℉	75 ℉	102 ℉	10%	0%	30%	0%
Hatch	76 ℉	106 ℉	74 ℉	105 ℉	10%	10%	30%	0%
Columbus	78 ℉	104 ℉	77 ℉	104 ℉	10%	10%	30%	0%
Orogrande	74 ℉	103 ℉	73 ℉	101 ℉	10%	0%	10%	0%
Mayhill	63 ℉	92 ℉	61 ℉	89 ℉	10%	10%	10%	0%
Mescalero	63 ℉	91 ℉	60 ℉	90 ℉	10%	20%	10%	10%
Timberon	60 ℉	89 ℉	59 ℉	89 ℉	10%	10%	10%	0%
Winston	66 ℉	93 ℉	64 ℉	92 ℉	10%	40%	40%	30%
Hillsboro	73 ℉	100 ℉	72 ℉	99 ℉	10%	20%	40%	10%
Spaceport	73 ℉	102 ℉	72 ℉	101 ℉	10%	10%	40%	0%
Lake Roberts	61 ℉	95 ℉	60 ℉	94 ℉	10%	60%	50%	60%
Hurley	69 ℉	98 ℉	67 ℉	97 ℉	10%	50%	40%	20%
Cliff	69 ℉	100 ℉	68 ℉	100 ℉	20%	50%	40%	30%
Mule Creek	66 ℉	96 ℉	65 ℉	96 ℉	30%	50%	40%	40%
Faywood	70 ℉	98 ℉	68 ℉	97 ℉	10%	30%	40%	10%
Animas	72 ℉	100 ℉	72 ℉	100 ℉	10%	10%	40%	10%
Hachita	72 ℉	100 ℉	71 ℉	100 ℉	10%	10%	40%	10%
Antelope Wells	70 ℉	99 ℉	70 ℉	100 ℉	40%	10%	50%	10%
Cloverdale	64 ℉	92 ℉	66 ℉	94 ℉	50%	10%	50%	10%

EPZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt