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000 FXUS64 KEPZ 150412 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1012 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1012 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026
- A pattern shift across the region will bring steadily cooling temperatures, increasing moisture, and increasing thunderstorm coverage over the next several days.
- The threat of localized flash flooding will spread from southwestern New Mexico on Tuesday, across the wider area Wednesday and Thursday.
- High temperatures will drop into the 80s across the lowlands by Wednesday or Thursday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1012 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Upper high now over the southeast Gulf states. Ridging still nosing back toward southern New Mexico. Though moisture component is good over all the CWA, the best moisture still concentrates west of the RG Valley. Thus our early convection for this evening has been in that area. Hi res models show that changing though late tonight as isolated storms move into the eastern half of the CWA.
Tuesday through Thursday...the upper high moves back westward, to TexArk region by Thursday. Initially this rids the high center of the western ridge, so that deep moisture is better distributed across all of the CWA. PWs will be in the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the best days for area wide storms and the risk of flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Gila/Black Range for Tuesday, and other areas will have to be looked at for a potential watch (perhaps more so on Wednesday). Models have sped the high's westward movement up some, so by Thursday the high is close enough (TexArk area) that moisture may be nudged more out to the western CWA again.
Friday through the weekend...the upper high migrates down to southern Texas into Mexico. Meanwhile over our area the moisture/short waves gradually get entrained into a mid-latitude low and trough over the Great Basin. This will slowly shunt the moisture back east over the forecast area Friday for a brief uptick in storm activity. This trough will move across New Mexico Saturday. Drying will begin Saturday, though still enough moisture for isolate/scattered thunderstorms. Pattern recognition would suggest possible severe storms, but parameters don't look to much out of the ordinary. By Sunday, another Pacific low entering California will provide a dry punch into our area with very little chance of storms.
By Monday and Tuesday, both GFS/ECMWF show the California low moving over Nevada/Arizona, drawing up sub-tropical moisture and increasing the chance of rain again.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026
SCT090 SCT-BKN250. Scattered OVC060CB 4-6SM TSRA, mainly over Sierra, Grant and northern Hidalgo Counties. Isolated storms elsewhere, though thunderstorms over Luna, Dona Ana and El Paso Counties may increase next 2-4 hours. Gusty winds of 35-45 knots near some storms, along with small hail. A few storms could last until around 10Z-12Z. Scattered thunderstorms to develop again most areas after 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026
We have seen a pattern switch away from warm/hot and dry weather to not as hot with better chances for rain. The best chances for rain will be west of the Rio Grande over the next several days with the threat of flooding a possibility in the Gila Region. Min RH's for Tuesday through the end of the week will be at or above 30% area wide, with excellent RH recoveries at night. Surface winds will stay well below critical values. We could see some gusty outflow winds especially tonight from area thunderstorms. Ventilation rates the next couple of days looks fair to good.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| El Paso | 71 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 30% | 20% | 60% | 30% |
| Sierra Blanca | 66 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Las Cruces | 66 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 30% | 20% | 60% | 40% |
| Alamogordo | 66 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 30% | 20% | 50% | 70% |
| Cloudcroft | 51 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 30% | 50% | 50% | 80% |
| Truth or Consequences | 66 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 50% | 30% | 60% | 60% |
| Silver City | 61 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 40% | 40% | 70% | 70% |
| Deming | 66 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 40% | 20% | 70% | 40% |
| Lordsburg | 67 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 70% | 60% |
| West El Paso Metro | 70 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 30% | 20% | 70% | 30% |
| Dell City | 69 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 10% | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Fort Hancock | 72 ℉ | 98 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 98 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 50% | 30% |
| Loma Linda | 66 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 50% | 40% |
| Fabens | 70 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 60% | 40% |
| Santa Teresa | 68 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 70% | 30% |
| White Sands HQ | 71 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 30% | 30% | 60% | 40% |
| Jornada Range | 66 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 40% | 30% | 60% | 40% |
| Hatch | 67 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 40% | 30% | 60% | 50% |
| Columbus | 70 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 40% | 20% | 60% | 30% |
| Orogrande | 65 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 30% | 20% | 60% | 50% |
| Mayhill | 57 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 55 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 20% | 70% | 50% | 80% |
| Mescalero | 55 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 53 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 40% | 50% | 50% | 80% |
| Timberon | 54 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 53 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 20% | 40% | 60% | 80% |
| Winston | 56 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 50% | 60% | 60% | 80% |
| Hillsboro | 66 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 40% | 50% | 70% | 60% |
| Spaceport | 64 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 50% | 30% | 50% | 50% |
| Lake Roberts | 57 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 50% | 50% | 70% | 80% |
| Hurley | 62 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 40% | 30% | 70% | 60% |
| Cliff | 62 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 50% | 40% | 70% | 80% |
| Mule Creek | 58 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 60% | 30% | 70% | 80% |
| Faywood | 64 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 40% | 30% | 70% | 60% |
| Animas | 67 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 40% | 40% | 60% | 60% |
| Hachita | 66 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 40% | 20% | 80% | 50% |
| Antelope Wells | 66 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 50% | 50% | 70% | 50% |
| Cloverdale | 63 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 62 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 50% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
EPZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
TX...None. NM...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Upper Gila River Valley.
FORECASTER...17-Hefner