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000 FXUS64 KEPZ 301059 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 459 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 950 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue into late tonight. Some of these storms will produce heavy rainfall and local flooding, with another round of thunderstorms spreading in from the west later Friday. - A quiet period looks to arrive in time for Halloween, Saturday.
- A upper level system will bring more showers and thunderstorms to the area Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.
- Quieter and drier weather looks to prevail after Monday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 950 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Tropical moisture continues over much of the CWA this evening (00Z KEPZ sounding still has 1.01 inches of PW). Expect a few showers and thunderstorms to continue overnight. Hi-res models have been very inconsistent, but latest HRRR/FV3 show one last batch of rain/storms from about the Cont Divide east and drifting east, mostly done by around 12Z-14Z...perhaps driven by a short wave just south of the NM Bootheel.
Our next weather system is currently organizing just west of the Baja as a strong sub-tropical jet pushes moisture into the area Friday. GFS/ECMWF have been pretty consistent, moving the upper trough to eastern Arizona Friday afternoon. This will begin spreading showers/thunderstorms to the western CWA, with the rain spreading east over most of the remainder of the CWA by around midnight. PWs still hang around one inch so flooding will still be a threat for the last half of Friday. Mid-level winds do pick up as the upper jet approaches so storms should move faster. Daytime CAPES of up to 500 J/kg along with some shear suggest some strong/severe storms possible. Models showing rain should be done late Saturday morning/mid-day, just in time for a dry trick-or-treat evening.
Finally, the main upper trough and frontal system will sweep in Sunday. Once again, showers/thunderstorms will develop west of Deming in the afternoon and rapidly spread east by late evening/early Monday morning. This may be more typical Fall, low energy, fast moving type showers as very little instability develops and strong mid-level winds should speed the showers through. Surface cold front sweeps through El Paso early evening and showers should end shortly after fropa. A few showers could linger far east to around noon Monday. Warm temperatures of Sunday will fall back below normal Monday and Tuesday. The good news is a drying trend is in store through Thursday, before another possible round of showers next Friday.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 457 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the TAF cycle across area terminals. However, another convective round later this evening into the overnight hours (04-12Z) could result in lower ceilings and reduced visibilities. Winds will be light and variable through the morning, before shifting southward and increasing to around 10 knots this afternoon. Gusts to 25 knots remain possible in association with the thunderstorm activity.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 929 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Plentiful moisture over the next several days will keep fire weather conditions low as continuous rounds of rain blanket the region. Thursday's min RHs will be in the 30s out west and increasing to the 50s out east before increasing to the at least the 50s area wide on Friday (some lowland areas may be in the upper 40s). Min RHs will be above 30% across the area through Monday. Ventilation rates will fall from Fair on Thursday to Poor on Friday as low-level winds subside. Ventilation rates improve over the weekend.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| El Paso | 58 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 70% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Sierra Blanca | 53 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Las Cruces | 53 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 70% | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| Alamogordo | 52 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 50 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 70% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| Cloudcroft | 40 ℉ | 53 ℉ | 40 ℉ | 55 ℉ | 80% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| Truth or Consequences | 53 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 53 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 70% | 20% | 10% | 40% |
| Silver City | 48 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 50 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 90% | 20% | 20% | 70% |
| Deming | 52 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 53 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 70% | 10% | 0% | 30% |
| Lordsburg | 51 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 55 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 80% | 10% | 10% | 70% |
| West El Paso Metro | 60 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 70% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Dell City | 56 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 50% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Fort Hancock | 60 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 40% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Loma Linda | 53 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 60% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Fabens | 59 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 60% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Santa Teresa | 56 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 70% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| White Sands HQ | 57 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 70% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| Jornada Range | 52 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 50 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 70% | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Hatch | 54 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 55 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 70% | 10% | 0% | 30% |
| Columbus | 56 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 70% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| Orogrande | 52 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 50 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 70% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| Mayhill | 45 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 70% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| Mescalero | 45 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 70% | 20% | 0% | 10% |
| Timberon | 42 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 43 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 80% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| Winston | 44 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 80% | 10% | 10% | 60% |
| Hillsboro | 50 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 52 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 80% | 20% | 10% | 50% |
| Spaceport | 50 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 70% | 20% | 0% | 30% |
| Lake Roberts | 44 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 38 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 90% | 20% | 30% | 70% |
| Hurley | 47 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 90% | 20% | 10% | 70% |
| Cliff | 49 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 90% | 20% | 30% | 80% |
| Mule Creek | 45 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 40 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 90% | 20% | 50% | 90% |
| Faywood | 50 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 52 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 80% | 20% | 10% | 60% |
| Animas | 53 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 80% | 10% | 0% | 60% |
| Hachita | 52 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 53 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 80% | 10% | 0% | 40% |
| Antelope Wells | 53 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 70% | 20% | 0% | 40% |
| Cloverdale | 52 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 53 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 80% | 20% | 0% | 50% |
EPZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands.
NM...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
FORECASTER...88-Nieves