Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous heat continues through Tuesday morning, with heat indices around 105-115 degF during the daytime and overnight lows in the 70s. Low confidence in showers/storms across northern Missouri, which could impact heat and humidity.

- Temperatures and heat index values lower through the week, with higher heat indices remaining near 100 degF towards southwestern MO/southeastern KS.

- Increasing chances (50-70%) for precipitation by the end of the week, some uncertainty remains in exact timing/placement of greatest potential.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Hazardous heat continues through this afternoon. Taking a look at the synoptic scale, a stout low-level shortwave has centered itself across the forecast area, coupled with the continued presence of an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS. Although the positioning of these features would prompt the advection of drier air across the area from the west/northwest, and our dewpoints have overall remained slightly lower than yesterday to reflect that, these features have also assisted in keeping skies clear under large scale subsidence. This has warranted ambient air temperatures to soar near the triple digits going into the afternoon, with heat indices similarly jumping to as high as 110+ degF for much of the area. Parts of northwestern MO have seen heat indices skyrocket towards 120+ degF, which can be attributed to higher dewpoints as a result of increased moisture released into the atmosphere from crops.

A shortwave trough presently centered over the northern Plains is forecast to continue traversing eastward through the evening and overnight, helping to push the shortwave ridge off towards the east into tomorrow morning. With this shortwave, there is an associated risk for showers/storms going into the evening/overnight, which could reach as far as north/northeastern MO. Recent guidance has placed this feature further north relative to RAP Mesoanalysis, which could have implications on their ability to properly resolve where and when precipitation will occur over the forecast area tonight through Monday. This is seen with variability in model solutions on precipitation in the near term. Some guidance pushes convection further into northern MO through the morning and clears it out by the afternoon, develops convection through the day tomorrow, or keeps a bulk of the activity off to our northeast. Regardless of solution, overall probabilities for seeing precipitation remain low (10-15%). Lingering cloud cover from any activity could continue to impact temperatures depending on their extent and density, but (as was seen this morning) this cloud cover could be sparse enough that it does not impact rising heat and humidity. Additionally, probabilistic guidance like the HREF continues to indicate high probabilities (70-90%) of heat indices exceeding 110 degF tomorrow with continued high ambient temperatures near the triple digits and dewpoints around the mid 70s for much of the area. With these factors in mind, have elected to extend the Extreme Heat Warning through the day tomorrow. A different shortwave trough digging from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes will drape a boundary across the central CONUS, which will push southward Monday night into Tuesday morning. There is some variation on the impacts of this boundary on the forecast area, with a greater bulk of guidance indicating that the boundary will push across the forecast area and slightly dampen down temperatures/dewpoints going into Tuesday and lowering overall heat indices. As such, the Extreme Heat Warning was only extended out to Tuesday morning, with further analysis of this trend being needed in subsequent forecast cycles.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

After Tuesday, synoptic guidance indicates that the upper-level ridge will persist over the western half of the CONUS with increasingly blocked flow behind a closed low developing over the East Coast. Embedded shortwaves in the low-level flow towards the west will increase PoPs through midweek, before a stronger impulse from the upper-level trough off the PNW Coast prompts the recession of the ridge off towards the west. This impulse in the upper-level flow is projected to dig southeastward, impacting the forecast area by the end of the period. There is continued variance in long term solutions on the exact timing and placement of this feature, but this variance is lessening with subsequent forecast cycles, so greater confidence may be ascertained in this solution. However, considering how far in the future this forecast resides, this trend will need to continue being monitored.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail with southerly winds. There is a low chance of an isolated storm, but confidence in timing/location is uncertain so left mention out of the terminals for the time being.

EAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105.