Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to widespread (40-80% chance) showers and storms today, mainly for areas along and north of the Missouri River.

- Isolated to scattered (15-30% chance) showers Saturday and Sunday.

- Widespread precipitation (60-95% chance) Monday - Monday night. There is some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights plotted shows broad upper ridging to nearly zonal flow prevailing over the middle of the country. In the middle and lower levels, high pressure is centered over the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. This is leading to easterly to southeasterly flow at the surface and southerly to southwesterly flow in the mid-levels. This flow regime is leading to modest moisture advection into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Isentropic ascent, noted from 295K to 300K, was leading to scattered to widespread showers and storms from northeastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri, with decreasing coverage from northern into northeastern Missouri. Forecast soundings across northern Missouri show steep lapse rates above an inversion with a nearly saturated profile below that inversion. This leads to fairly robust elevated instability, for late October, with 1000-1500 J/kg of elevated instability. With the strongest mid and upper-level winds pushed north of the region, shear is relatively weak, and that is the main limiting factor preventing stronger convection across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri. That said, with the ascent noted from 295K to 300K, instability available, and ahead of shortwave trough moving northeastward out of the Southern Plains, we should see scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity today for areas along and north of the Missouri river.

For Saturday, ascent looks weaker/less focused, leading to lower chances for precipitation overall, despite what looks like thick cloud cover. Coverage of precipitation looks more isolated to scattered in this pattern. Transient shortwave ridging builds into the area Sunday, limiting precipitation chances. That shortwave ridging is in response to a deepening trough moving east from the Rockies. Strong southerly/southwesterly low to mid-level flow develops leading to very strong moisture transport into the region. This leads to very anomalously high precipitable water values that are near or at the max percentiles in the NAEFS climatology. Instability looks weak overall but given the strong kinematics, we'll need to watch for the potential for strong/severe storms in what may be a high-shear, low-CAPE environment across eastern Kansas and western Missouri for Monday afternoon and evening.

In the wake of this early week system, temperatures fall back to near-normal levels, in the lower 60s for much of the area, for middle to later part of next week. The shortwave associated with the early week precipitation chances may be slow to depart the area. Deterministic models show the upper-low getting cutoff and meandering through the region. There's some indication of this in the ensemble 500mb clusters, though they never show the system cutting off. Rather, just slow eastward eastward progression and anomalously low 500mb heights through the lower Mississippi Valley.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Showers and storms, mainly in the vicinity MCI and affecting STJ, for next 1-2 hours. Then there should be a lull in activity later this morning into the afternoon with renewed chances this afternoon as activity builds into the area from the south. Winds look light from the east trending to the southeast this afternoon.

EAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.