Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread precipitation is on track to move across southwest KS today, with rainfall totals in the 0.25-0.5" range for our southeast zones.

- Some lingering showers are possible early Saturday, but the majority of the weekend will be dry with afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s.

- Another chance of rain exists Monday and Tuesday, however wave characteristics cast doubt on current ensemble output.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

KDDC radar observations early Friday afternoon show a large precipitation shield is moving slowly northward into western KS, courtesy of a negatively-tilted upper level shortwave trough ejecting northeastward from the southern plains as per recent water vapor satellite imagery. All HREF members and other short term guidance agree nearly our entire area will see light to moderate rainfall through the remainder of the day into the overnight period, before gradually tapering off from south to north. Precipitation totals are expected to be in the 0.25-0.5" range, with locally higher amounts possible, along and south/east of a Liberal-Dodge City-La Crosse line, while areas north/west of this line will see QPF gradually decrease from 0.25" to just a trace to a couple hundredths near/along the KS/CO border.

Scattered rain showers may be ongoing early Saturday morning across our area as the left exit region of an approaching upper level jet streak provides some synoptic forcing, but any/all precipitation should erode by early afternoon. Temperatures daytime Saturday will be near to below normal as overcast skies and the recent rainfall help to keep afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles suggest a strong upper level wave will quickly move from the western CONUS on Sunday onto the High Plains by late Monday/early Tuesday, followed by longwave ridging through the end of next business week. This synoptic evolution will favor another chance for widespread precipitation Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned upper trough passes through, succeeded by a dry period through Friday. It should be noted that the probabilities of precipitation with the early week trough may be overdone given the wave's open and positive tilt nature. These types of scenarios generally offer only a limited opportunity for sufficient forcing for abundant precipitation, and factoring in the possibility for convection over the southern plains to generate a potential vorticity lobe that models struggle to capture and dragging the wave southward, this event has true bust potential. That said, plenty of lingering moisture from today's precipitation helps to mitigate these concerns somewhat, so trends will need to be monitored.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 511 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Variable flight conditions are forecast through the forecast period. Light showers are moving northward and slowly encompassing all terminals. It may be intermittent and begin to dissolve around 5Z. Along with the showers, low stratus and fog is expected. How low visibilities and ceilings drop still hold some uncertainty, but there is overall a high confidence in significantly reduced flight conditions. By around 15Z, visibilities are forecast to recover with the ceilings lifting somewhat. The next set of TAFs will have more confidence in the fog and ceilings. Through the period, winds will be steady out of the south at around 10 KTs.

DDC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.