Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat continues into Tuesday

- Organized storms are forecast to move through western Kansas early Wednesday morning

- A slight cooling trend is coming towards this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

17Z synopsis shows a large 598 dm upper level high across much of the desert southwest and central plains with 850 mb temperature already in the 31-32 (C) range. At the surface a 1003 mb surface low is located just north of Syracuse and a weak frontal boundary extends across northwest and north central Kansas.

Tonight an upper level shortwave ejects out of northern Colorado into northwest Kansas. With the lower level moisture having a higher concentration on the north side of the frontal boundary the higher CAPE values will be located across northwest into north central Kansas. Scattered storms should start to break out in the late afternoon hours in northeast Colorado and move along the I-70 corridor tonight and with higher lapse rates and DCAPE values in the 1700-1800 J/kg range the main severe threat with the storms will be damaging winds.

Tuesday will be another hot day. The overnight thunderstorm complex should push the frontal boundary to the south that most of the area should see more east to northeast surface winds. The core of the hotter air will shift southward to areas along the Kansas-Oklahoma border and we could once again see highs around 100 and heat index values in the 105-108 range. Areas across north central Kansas should be slightly cooler with residual clouds and cooler 850 mb temps. For the overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday morning a much better opportunity for storms (30-40%) will be for areas along and west of highway 83 and along the I-70 corridor. A stronger shortwave will move along the northeast portion of the upper level high giving us a track from northeast Colorado through southwest Kansas. Upslope winds will aid in providing decent lower level moisture (dewpoints in the 60s) and mid to upper level instability will be in the order of 2000 J/kg. Short term models and CAMs show a MCS coming out of northeast Colorado through northwest and north central Kansas by late Tuesday night and eventually moving into southwest Kansas by early Wednesday morning. With the previous day's heat we should still have high DCAPE values that damaging winds are possible with the storms. Medium range models also show another shortwave Thursday evening that could lead to scattered storm across western Kansas.

Long term ensembles have a slow cooling trend in the temperatures as the intense upper level high slowly moves westward into the Rockies and the upper level winds turn more to the northwest. By the weekend the most intense heat should be mostly out of Kansas and highs will be more in the lower to mid 90s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Winds through the afternoon will range from 12-20 kts sustained with occasional gusts up to 25 kts. During the overnight hours a thunderstorm complex is forecast to move across northern Kansas and VCTS are possible around HYS between 09-15Z however these probabilities of storms should be under 30%. A weak cold front should also move south due to the storms and a wind direction shift from the south to the northeast will occur around the terminals between 09-12Z.

DDC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-043>045-061>063-074>076-084-085. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031- 046-064>066-077>081-086>090. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ066-080-081- 086>090.