Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Minor coastal flooding along with a moderate rip current risk will continue through the weekend.

- Drier Saturday with warm and humid conditions expected for Halloween weekend.

- Our next cold front is expected sometime around Tuesday of next week along with chances for rain and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Shower and storm activity will continue into the early with the remnants of Post Tropical Storm Vance from the Pacific bringing deep moisture and left over vorticity into the region. Activity will wane from west to east through early afternoon hours as the disturbance pushes east. The Weather Prediction Center has maintained portions of the Brush Country in a Marginal Risk (1 of 4) that extends into the northeastern portions of the CWA. We have see isolated street flooding across the region with some of the stronger thunderstorms due to the nature of the environment. We will dry out by Friday and conditions will persist through the weekend until our next front. Our next cold front is expected to swing through early next week in association with a potent low that will progress through the southern Great Plains. There is still some disagreements on a few things such as timing and the extent of the associated front south. Though as it sits this will likely be our next chance for some activity. Be sure check back for future updates.

For Halloween, around a 20% chance of showers will linger mainly in the northeast of the Victoria Crossroads, though most locations will remain dry. Not only are we expected to be dry, but low temperatures will stay in the 70s/upper 60s with light winds Halloween night. Our post Halloween crash will be warm and sunny through early next week.

Will have to continue to monitor the possibility for minor coastal flooding along Gulf facing beaches into the weekend. This will be due to persistent onshore flow and elevated swell periods. An increased risk of rip currents will also persist.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Conditions will vary between VFR and IFR through the TAF cycle, with generally MVFR to IFR conditions developing around 06Z across the area. A few locations may have periods of LIFR ceilings late tonight/early morning. Conditions will improve to VFR by midday Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Generally light to moderate (BF 2-4) east to southeasterly flow will persist through much of the week, with seas generally 3 to 5 feet. Low to medium (15- 40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible near thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Abundant low-level moisture and winds generally below 20 knots will limit fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Rain chances will diminish over the weekend. Another cold front is expected early next week with drier conditions in its wake.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

CRP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...None.