Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes with this issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler and dry today behind the front.

2) Another extended period of dry weather and above average temperatures this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler and dry today behind the front.

A cool northwest flow and associated upslope flow and shallow lake induced instability will support plenty of cloud cover, maybe even a passing shower through at least midday today, with only partial/gradual clearing in the afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler than the past few days but very close to average for the end of October.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another extended period of dry weather and above average temperatures this weekend through early next week.

Surface high pressure will settle over the eastern Great Lakes Saturday, then gradually drift off the southern New England coast Sunday through Monday. This feature will maintain dry weather across the eastern Great Lakes with temperatures trending above average.

A more active pattern may develop by the middle to end of next week as a deep trough moves slowly east across the CONUS, possibly evolving into a closed low as it reaches the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. There is considerable spread in ensemble members and deterministic model runs with the timing of this system, but once it arrives it will likely bring a wetter pattern that lasts for at least a few days later next week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Areas of MVFR-IFR northwest upslope cigs will persist through this morning as a shallow layer of low level moisture becomes trapped beneath the inversion. Clouds may linger a bit into the afternoon in some areas, but low level drying and diurnal mixing will allow CIGS to return to VFR in most areas.

Tonight...surface high pressure slides in over the Lower Lakes with mainly VFR conditions. Some valley fog will be possible in wind sheltered area.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely continue today for the nearshore zones from the Niagara River to Cape Vincent in the post- frontal WNW flow. Winds and wave action will diminish from west to east tonight.

Surface high pressure will moving overhead will support light wind flow and minimal wave action over the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather will return today and then last through the weekend. As a result, fine fuels and leaf litter will once again become very dry.

BUF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ043>045.