Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 224 AM EDT Friday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 224 AM EDT Friday...

1. Some lingering showers and cooler weather is expected across the region today following a cold front. Mostly dry and seasonable conditions are expected through the weekend into the start of next week.

2. Increased fire weather concerns through this weekend.

3. Two fronts with little moisture or forcing will offer low end chances for rain early next week, before becoming dry and warm.

DISCUSSION

As of 224 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: The cold front continues to move through the region this morning, with dwindling rain showers and plentiful cloud cover along with it. Rainfall amounts with this feature have generally been a few hundredths, although some locations across northern New York have observed a few tenths on an inch of rain. Strong cold air advection will take place behind the front today, with increased clouds and some chances for some lingering showers in the favored upslope areas with some flurries possible in the higher terrain. Temperatures on Friday will be more seasonable compared to yesterday, with highs in the upper 40s and 50s.

Heading into the weekend and the start of next week, surface high pressure looks to build into the region once again. This will lead to another stretch of dry weather, with ample sunshine, light winds, and pleasant conditions to round out October and welcome the start of November. Temperatures on Saturday will be a little on the cooler side, with highs generally in the mid 40s to low 50s, moderating towards the start of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Breezy winds and lower relative humidity values will lead to increased fire weather concerns over the next few days, especially given the plentiful dry leaf litter across the area serving as fuel. Wind gusts today and Friday will generally be in the 15 to 25 mph range, with some higher gusts are possible. Minimum relative humidity values will generally be between 40 to 55 percent for today. Heading into the weekend, minimum relative humidity values should drop into the 30 to 45 percent range, but winds look to be much lighter. Recent rainfall amounts remain rather negligible, with most locations only receiving a few hundredths of an inch, but a few locations across northern New York received over 0.1 inches of rain with these showers. Cloud cover across the region today will help limit some of these fire weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 3: There remains little change to the details regarding a frontal boundary expected to shift southwards Monday night into Tuesday. Upper level vorticity will shift east, and an incoming ridge will help dissipate the front. It's very possible it does not even make it to the international border, but a handful of scenarios depict it reaching at least far northern Vermont. For late Tuesday into Wednesday, a surface low will lift from the Plains north towards James Bay. It will send a warm front into the region. Better moisture and dynamics will remain well to our north and west as surface high pressure moving from far eastern Canada into the maritimes will keep stable, southeasterly flow filtering into the region. Again, some rain could develop with a handful of forecast scenarios depicting light rain along the international border.

Thereafter, the large scale pattern amplifies. The NBM is only forecasting lower 60s, but 925mb temperatures ranging from 10-13 C suggest that some upper 60s could be in the cards. Overall, there's still spread in terms of the evolution of a compact upper low across the Plains, and how it interacts with a rich moisture plume off the Atlantic, but the timing is looking more consistent with an arrival of next Thursday night into Friday. This could be a very soaking rain. The NBM mean ranges from 0.50-1.00", but the overall pattern suggests we could see more. Seeing long range guidance with 1" probabilities of 25-40% and 2" probabilities of 5-15% certainly suggest some potential for a little more. We'll have plenty of time to monitor the evolution of this feature.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18Z Saturday...Winds are gusty out of the northwest this afternoon, continuing into the evening. EFK is currently MVFR with a light shower and BKN020 ceilings. Have included PROB30 there and at SLK this afternoon. Otherwise, winds will begin to subside mainly after 06z and skies will trend more clear.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE

As of 224 AM EDT Friday... A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for today. After a lull in winds this morning, northwesterly winds will increase throughout the day, between the 15-25 KT range, with gusts closer to 30 knots. Waves will generally build to 2-4 feet towards this evening. Winds are expected to gradually diminish overnight tonight into Saturday morning.

BTV WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.