Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Drier conditions expected this weekend into early next week.

- Above normal temperatures this weekend, with a cold front expected to bring cooler temperatures late Tuesday.

- A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect until 7 AM Saturday for the Lower Texas Coast beaches and may need to be extended into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Lingering tropical moisture will support isolated to scattered showers overnight in the upper RGV and into the northern Ranchlands Friday. Drier conditions return Saturday through Monday, with temperatures gradually climbing from the upper 80s-mid 90s Friday into the low-mid 90s by Monday. A closed low moving into the Southern Plains early next week will bring breezy conditions Monday ahead of an associated cold front, expected to move through deep South TX Tuesday. Rainfall potential remains limited, with PoPs generally 30% or less across the northern Ranchlands and coastal areas. Cooler temperatures and drier air arrive Wednesday behind the front, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

At local beaches, persistent easterly flow and elevated astronomical tides will continue to contribute to elevated water levels and beach erosion through the weekend. A Coastal Flood Statement will be extended through Saturday morning, with potential additional extensions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the period. Ongoing showers north of the airfields will continue to move towards the northeast and impacts are not anticpated at any of the airfields. Light and variable winds this morning are expected to increase to around 10 knots out of the southeast by this afternoon. Light and variable winds are forecast to return this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Gentle to moderate southeasterly to onshore winds, slight seas, and 7 to 8 second period swell will prevail through the week. Low rain chances continue through Saturday, with isolated showers or thunderstorms possible. Showers and thunderstorms could lead to locally higher winds and seas. A cold front early next week could return Caution conditions across the waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BRO WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.