Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 134 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026

- Thunderstorms: Unsettled pattern continues through the weekend with isolated to scattered showers and storms, some strong at times with gusty winds and heavy downpours. There is a marginal risk for the far northeast portions of Central Alabama early Monday morning.

- Heat: Temperatures will be in the mid-to-upper 90s through Wednesday, with the warmest temperatures expected Tuesday. Heat indices may reach or exceed 105 F in some areas on Monday through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 134 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026

Central Alabama remains in an unsettled pattern through the weekend as the stalled cold front lifts north. We are currently monitoring a weak impulse exiting our area, accompanied by a boundary shifting across our northern counties. Additional boundary-driven activity expected later today as the northern feature moves south. As we work into the afternoon, the boundary in our north will be across the south, while an additional boundary may begin to slide into the north from activity currently in Kentucky. These boundaries will trigger more showers and storms. Activity in the north will be limited as the bulk of the instability will be in the central and southern sections of the area. Overall coverage will be isolated to scattered, so generally only have 20-40% rain chances in the afternoon to account for this, with the highest in the central and south. Showers and storms may linger through 9 or 10 PM in the far south, before dissipating for the night. Cloud cover and rain should keep the temperatures down in the southeast through the early afternoon as well. In the north and west, we will see temperatures in the low to mid 90s, so afternoon heat index values will climb above 100 and approach the 105 Heat Advisory criteria. While heat index values in the north and west will approach the 105 F threshold, current dewpoints are trending lower than in previous days. Consequently, confidence is too low for a Heat Advisory, though isolated areas may briefly touch 105 F this afternoon.

While the ridge building will lead to rising temperatures beginning Monday, a mid-level shortwave will bring in a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) from the north. Confidence has begun to increase in the overall placement of the system and timing, so precipitation chances have been raised. Although the system will likely weaken as it approaches our northern counties, a lingering risk for strong to marginally severe storms persists in the northwest through 10 AM. Winds will be the biggest concern with this system. With this MCS moving through, confidence on temperatures recovering enough to warrant a Heat Advisory on Monday remains low.

Tuesday is shaping up to be the hottest day of the week, with highs reaching the mid to upper-90s under the influence of the ridge. The MCS train will continue Tuesday, but at this time it appears that the main track will be to our east, so rain chances are minimal and the heat most likely will be oppressive. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Tuesday. By mid-week, the ridge appears to become slightly suppressed as a trough builds over the East Coast and a deep low forms over New England. This pattern change will allow for slightly cooler temperatures to filter in from the north, with highs trending toward the upper-80s and low- 90s by next Friday. Confidence in the timing and intensity of potential MCS systems remains limited, resulting in lower probabilities of precipitation for the latter half of the workweek.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a storm through 00Z for MGM and AUO. At this point confidence is only high enough to go with VCSH for these sites. Overnight, we should see a complex of showers and storms move into the north after 8 to 9Z with showers and storms impacting the TAF sites by 10 to 11Z across the north and 13 to 15Z across the south.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

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FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain minimal through the weekend, supported by a warm, humid air mass and persistent rain chances. MinRH values are expected to remain above 50 percent through Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BMX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.