Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1201 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2026

- Fire Weather: There is a low to medium fire weather risk this afternoon due to dry fuels and limited moisture.

- Halloween Evening: A rainy weekend is in the forecast, but the trick-or-treating outlook is becoming less scary. We expect most of the activity to hold off until after the witching hour, but keep your rain gear on standby just to be safe.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2026

We were treated to another cool start this morning across Central Alabama with temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s. We look to warm up nicely again today with highs topping out in the mid 70s to low 80s. Rain-free conditions are expected to continue through the end of the work week as we remain under the influence of a weakening upper level ridge and surface high pressure. Similar to the last couple of nights, light winds and clear skies will promote patchy river fog development late tonight into early Friday morning.

Moisture associated with Tropical Storm Vance will begin to surge over the mountainous terrain of Mexico into the Plains and eventually the Southeast by the weekend. This will lead to increased rain chances, generally Saturday evening through Sunday morning. While the greatest chances look to come overnight, we will carry low chances (20-30%) Saturday afternoon so keep that in mind before heading out for some trick-or-treating.

Weak ridging early next week will lead to a few rain-free days before our next system arrives by mid week. There are several details we will need to work out over the coming days such as how far south the upper level low moves and how quickly it tracks through the region. For now, we will carry a moderate (40-60%) chance of showers and storms as ample moisture will be in place ahead of this system.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2026

VFR conditions and easterly winds from 5-8 knots will persist throughout this TAF cycle. Scattered high clouds will begin to increase through the day Friday.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Min RHs this afternoon will fall into the 35-45% range. However, winds are expected to remain less than 10 knots. Moisture will begin to slowly increase on Friday, leading to min RHs increasing into the 40-50% range. Over the weekend, a surge of deeper moisture will keep RHs well above 50%, leading to increased rain chances Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BMX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.