Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong westerly winds will slowly diminish overnight.

- Near normal temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s through the week.

- Mainly dry today, low chances for showers Wednesday. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms may approach the area late in the work week and into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Strong gusty winds will continue to slowly subside through the overnight hours. The High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire over western ND. Will hold on to the wind advisory over central ND, it expires at 4 AM and may be able to cancel early. Otherwise only some minor adjustments to sky cover and pops in the meager wrap around moisture.

UPDATE Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Winds continue across the west and central, but gusts continue to push east and decrease across the west. Showers have diminished as day time heating has subsided. Low clouds continue to push in from the north. No major updates needed at this time as the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

An upper level low continues pass across the International Border bringing forth wind gusts around 50-60 mph out west. Stronger winds will continue to push farther east, but decrease a bit after sunset when the inversion sets up. There will still be cold air advection on the back side of the upper low which will lead to high winds at the surface overnight, but mixing could limit the upper threshold of the strong winds pushing eastward. There will be a few embedded showers with this system that could produce brief showers this evening into tonight. No major updates are needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Latest surface analysis shows the front along the western portion of the state. The surface low is just to the north of the state and it has started to lift out into Canada. It will continue to move out through the afternoon. Linger rain showers will continue as it gets wrap around the low, especially along the international border. The area will clear out of the rain showers and low cloud cover as the front passes by. Winds will be predominately out of the west by the afternoon, thanks to the frontal passage, and it will bring very strong gusts across much of the state. 12Z HREF has large swath of 60-80% probabilities of 50 mph or higher behind the front, starting from the west and moving east throughout the day. There is a narrow swath of 20-50% probabilities of 55 mph, but it mainly confined to areas west of Highway 82. As result, a High Warning is in effect for the western portion of the state and a Wind Advisory for everywhere else through the tonight. Winds will slacken below warning and advisory by the late night.

On top of the strong gusty winds, dry air has started to filter into the southwestern portion of the state. It is evident on the water vapor imagery and the latest 12Z model runs continue to show this dry slot lasting through the afternoon. Strong winds and dry air will bring near critical fire weather conditions late this afternoon for the far southwestern counties.

Going forward with the rest of week, a ridge will build back over the region, leading a calmer day tomorrow. Winds will still be elevated through the day, but lower than today. Another weather feature will bring another round of rain shower chances on Wednesday. Ensemble models show the pattern will be unsettled for the last half of the week and into the weekend. Another low pressure center is poised to develop and move across the western states. There is uncertainty on the progression of this feature at the present moment. For now, chances for rain showers will return through the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Strong westerly winds will continue to dissipated through the overnight hours and into early Wednesday morning. Areas of MVFR ceilings will also remain through around midday Wednesday before lifting to VFR and exiting the area to the east. VFR conditions are then expected through the remainder of the TAF period. Northwest winds will diminish this afternoon, then shift easterly after 00Z Wednesday.

BIS WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for NDZ004-005- 012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.