Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain is forecast on Monday and Tuesday with good chances (50-90%) for totals to reach or exceed 1 inch.

- Temperatures remain above normal for highs and lows through mid week before slowly decreasing by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Today through Wednesday: Dry Today - Widespread Rain Early Week

Subtle upper level ridging is in place for today which is aiding in leading to an area of clearing cloud cover over the CWA at the time of this writing. The breaks in the clouds should allow temperatures to warm up into the 60s area-wide today and some locations may even approach the upper 60s to near 70s if enough heating can occur. Beyond today, plenty of cloud cover is forecast for much of this next week, so be sure to get out and enjoy the limited sunshine today! Dry conditions are forecast for today through most of tonight.

The next weather system to bring widespread rainfall to the region is currently moving east over the western CONUS. This feature should be over or just east of the Rockies by sunrise tomorrow morning. A strong plume of mid level theta-e will be in place out ahead of this system as it approaches the Upper Midwest. Widespread rainfall will be a result from the upper level lift combined with plentiful moisture throughout the atmospheric column. The main downside is that the latest forecast guidance is trending towards lesser rainfall totals with this system through Wednesday morning. We should know if this trend will come to fruition by tomorrow morning, when the widespread rainfall was originally expected to begin. There are still models that suggest widespread rainfall begins to move over the region on Monday morning but the trend is towards more isolated to scattered rain showers through mid afternoon before the first widespread rain bands move in. This is supported in a majority of the hi-res guidance, including both the 01/12z HREF and REFS. After the initial widespread rain band moves through, it is likely that at least scattered rain showers will continue into Monday night before another band moves in early Tuesday morning.

Additional widespread rainfall will almost certainly continue on Tuesday. The main axis of the H500 trough will remain to the west of the forecast area which should keep the moisture axis over the Driftless Region. Dependent upon how the surface low tracks going into Wednesday, rain shower chances may continue into the day if wrap around moisture can move in over the CWA. Widespread rainfall totals of a half inch or more are still high (+70%) based on the NBM, HREF, REFS, and LREF output. However, the potential for 1 inch of rain or more has been decreasing, most notably in the 01/00z to 01/12z LREF, which decreases that potential by upwards of 20 percent in the newest grand ensemble run. In addition to the rain, temperatures will remain well above average in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Monday and Tuesday before beginning to cool down on Wednesday as cooler air wraps around the upper level low. In fact, the record warm low temperature for the month of November at KRST and KLSE may be tied or broken on Tuesday morning if the forecast lows end up panning out.

Late This Week: Trending Drier with Above Normal Temperatures

The trough that provided the rain earlier in the week should weaken and lift northward late this week. Westerly to northwesterly flow is forecast initially behind the system before another potential trough digs south out of the prairie provinces of Canada next weekend. This synoptic pattern favors reinforced cooler air over the Upper Midwest. Even so, temperatures may still be slightly above average for highs and lows during this time frame. Dry conditions are forecast for Friday into Saturday, but there could be some chances of precipitation on Saturday depending upon moisture quality and the track of the next trough.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1153 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

VFR conditions this afternoon and evening will give way to MVFR conditions overnight ahead of an incoming weather disturbance. As this disturbance moves closer to the region, cigs will continue to fall with increasing chances for showers, eventually with showers trending prevailing by late morning on Monday. Additionally, there are high probabilities (60-80% in the recent HREF) for cigs to fall to IFR levels during the morning hours across much of the region on Monday. Additionally, IFR vsbys may accompany heavier showers at times. Winds will increase from the southeast to around 5-15 kts during the morning on Monday with gusts as high as 30 kts across unsheltered areas of southeast Minnesota and northeast IA.

ARX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.