Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Impactful heat is expected to continue through this week.

- There is a low chance for thunderstorms in the northwestern combined Panhandles this evening, Tuesday evening, and Wednesday evening.

- Thunderstorms will be possible across the combined Panhandles on Thursday. The chance for severe thunderstorms is very low.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A ridge of high pressure is expected to persist throughout the short- term period, leaving heat as the primary concern. We will continue the trend of widespread 100+ degree high temperatures with lows in the low- to mid-70s for most of the Panhandles. This will continue to result in 'major' to 'extreme' Heat Risk across most of the Panhandles. With highs approaching or exceeding 105 degrees, will issue a Heat Advisory again for most of the combined Panhandles, except for portions of the northwestern combined Panhandles.

Despite being almost directly under the ridge, surface winds are expected to turn more southerly or southeasterly across the northwestern Panhandles today, and southeasterly to easterly tomorrow. These upsloping winds, along with convective temperatures being reached, could be just enough to force some showers and thunderstorms to develop in the northwestern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma Panhandle this evening and tomorrow evening. Forecast soundings in the vicinity show inverted-V soundings, indicating the potential for gusty winds. Not expecting much in the way of rain accumulating at the surface though.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The robust upper-level ridge will slip further south, down into the far southern Texas Panhandle or northwestern Texas, on Wednesday. Temperatures across the Panhandles will be very slightly less hot, but still expecting widespread 100+ degrees. As it stands now, it looks like a Heat Advisory may eventually be needed for some of the typical hot spots across the area (e.g., Hutchinson county, PDC). Otherwise, with the ridge shifting just slightly to the south, this could be enough to realize some slightly better chances for thunderstorms to come off the higher terrain of northeastern New Mexico and move into the northwestern Panhandles. Like the previous days, the inverted-V thermodynamic profile suggests some gusty winds will be possible along with sparse rainfall.

The upper-level ridge is favored to stay in place or shift slightly south on Thursday. Temperatures are currently expected to stay similar to what is forecast on Wednesday. A boundary is favored to move into the northwestern/western Panhandles Thursday afternoon which could be enough by itself to cause some showers and thunderstorms to develop. Additionally, a weak and subtle shortwave could clip eastern Colorado/western Kansas. This could be close enough to add additional mid-level forcing to get more thunderstorm coverage. Forecast soundings in the vicinity show inverted-V signatures below relatively rich mid-level moisture with tall/skinny CAPE. This environment is favorable for dry microbursts capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts.

Going into Friday and this coming weekend, the upper-level ridge will retrograde westward causing northwesterly flow aloft to at least briefly position over the Panhandles. As is typical in this regime during the summer, this is a good signal for thunderstorms, most likely in the evening to overnight hours. Easterly to southeasterly surface return flow is favored over this time period which will result in ample directional shear, reducing the need for stronger mid-level winds in order to result in sufficient wind shear for organized thunderstorms. All that's left is the need for sufficient instability, which will have to be monitored. The NBM has the highest PoPs in New Mexico and the far western combined Panhandles at this time. This would make sense if the winds aloft turn northerly or northeasterly too quickly, but while we have northwesterly flow aloft, thunderstorms will be possible for at least the western and northern halves of the Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours. Light and somewhat variable winds are also expected to continue through the 00Z period. Hot temperatures and high density altitudes will also return tomorrow afternoon.

Rangel

AMA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-006.

Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ002>005- 007>010-317.

Heat Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ002>005-007>010-317.

Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ011>020.

OK...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001.

Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.

Heat Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ002-003.