Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is an elevated risk for fire spread today for areas within and immediately adjacent to the Hudson River Valley, western MA and northwest CT due to dry fuels combined with gusty winds and lowering relative humidity.

2) Dry weather is expected this weekend through the middle of next week with increasing chances for rain later in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Rain showers ahead of an approaching cold front continue for areas north and west of the Capital District but are beginning to break apart and diminish. These showers may make little further eastward progression before fully dissipating. Therefore, most areas from the Capital District and points south and east will likely continue its dry spell for several more days. Where it has rained, rainfall amounts up to around 0.10 inches have been observed with the higher amounts across the Adirondacks. The cold front is nearing the Adirondacks and will continue to track southeastward across the region through this morning. In the wake of the front, gusty northwesterly winds will develop and continue through the rest of the day with frequent gusts 25 to 35 mph, strongest across the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District and Berkshires. Relative humidity levels will lower to 40 to 55 percent this afternoon with the higher values in the higher elevations. Per collaboration with NYS/New England DEC's/DEP's and surrounding WFO's, given the drying fuels across these areas with little or no rainfall for nearly 2 weeks, a Special Weather Statement has been issued through this afternoon for an elevated risk of fire spread. With the cold air advection in place, temperatures will struggle to rise much today only reaching the mid-50s to mid-60s except remaining in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the Adirondacks. Winds will begin to diminish tonight with surface high pressure building in from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Dry weather is expected this weekend through the middle of next week with high pressure nearby with less wind. Latest forecast trends keep a backdoor frontal boundary well north of the area early next week reducing precipitation chances for our area. High temperatures will start near normal this weekend, trending to 5 to 10 degrees above normal next week. Long range guidance is beginning to show signs that we finally get our much needed widespread rainfall later next week with the potential interaction or phasing of a deep upper level trough/upper-level low approaching from the west and a low pressure system tracking northward near or just off the East Coast. Further details remain uncertain with this still a week out.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12z/Sat...A cold front will cross the area this morning. Some periods of MVFR cigs are possible, mainly at KALB/KPSF for a few hours this morning; otherwise, VFR conditions will be common through the TAF period. Clouds begin to diminish tonight. Winds shift to the northwest at the start of the TAF period and increase to 10-18 kt with gusts 22-30 kt through this afternoon. Winds begin to gradually decrease tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night to Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.