Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry, fall-like weather will continue through today before temperatures moderate back to above normal levels for Wednesday-Thursday along with increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms.

2) Dry and cool weather return Friday through early Saturday, before unsettled conditions possibly develop late Saturday into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a chilly start with high pressure nearly overhead, the high will then shift east of the region this afternoon, allowing for a light south wind to develop. Mainly sunny skies this morning will give way to some high and mid level clouds this afternoon as mid level warm advection increases. Clouds will be more prevalent north of I-90 later this afternoon. High temps should reach the upper 60s to lower 70s in most valley areas.

An approaching cold front from the northwest will bring more clouds to the region late tonight into Wednesday, and there could be just enough forcing for some isolated showers, especially near and south of I-90. Temps should warm into the 70s for most areas, possibly reaching around 80 across portions of the mid Hudson Valley.

The frontal system is expected to stall/wash out near or south of I-90 Wednesday night, as a wave of low pressure tracks along the remnant boundary on Thursday. This wave should bring a better chance for showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night. PWAT's increase to 1.50-1.75" along with some weak, mainly elevated instability could allow for some embedded thunderstorms with heavier downpours during this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The aforementioned frontal boundary should settle south of the region Friday through early Saturday as high pressure slides north of the region, allowing for a period of dry weather with below normal temperatures. The front may then return northward ahead of an approaching low pressure system from the Great Lakes region, bringing showers back into the region Saturday afternoon or night and continuing into a portion of Sunday. Timing of these showers will be better refined as we get a bit closer to this time range.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Patchy ground fog will develop through sunrise, with most likely impacts of IFR/LIFR Vsbys/Cigs affecting KGFL and KPSF, especially between 08Z-11Z/Tue. Some fog could eventually drift off the Mohawk River and reach KALB between 10Z-12Z/Tue, though there remains more uncertainty in IFR/LIFR conditions compared to KGFL/KPSF. Any fog/low clouds and associated IFR/LIFR conditions should lift/improve to VFR between 12Z-13Z/Tue, with VFR conditions then prevailing through this evening.

Nearly calm winds through daybreak will gradually become south to southeast at 5-10 KT by this afternoon. These winds may persist at KALB tonight, while becoming light/variable elsewhere shortly after sunset.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.