Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity Today-Thursday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat.

DISCUSSION

As of 214 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity Today-Thursday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat.

Early morning weather analysis shows a strong upper level ridge over the eastern half of the United States with its axis stretching into far northern Canada. With ridge stretching into far northern Canada this allows the 1026mb surface high to move over New England. The high pressure is in optimal position to allow winds to decouple inland and skies to remain clear across the area. The decoupled winds and clear skies is allowing radiational cooling to occur and let temperatures drop into the upper 50s and low 60s inland. However, along the coast temperatures continue to remain in the low 70s as winds continue to blow off the warm waters. Through sunrise, expect temps to drop into the low to middle 50s inland and upper 60s along the coast. Through the day high pressure will continue to push eastward eventually moving offshore. This will allow for a favorable early fall like day across the area. Skies are likely to remain mostly clear and temperatures will likely struggle to reach 80 in some areas. Highs for the day are likely to be in the upper 70s to low 80s inland and mid 70s along the coast. By tonight, temperatures will be similar as the previous night with lows in the middle to upper 50s inland and low 60s along the coast.

As the week progresses the high pressure off the New England coast will eventually push SW into the Carolina coastal plain through midweek. This will likely cause high temps to stay mostly in the low- mid 80s through Wed with lows in the 50s to lower 60s (locally warmer at the immediate coast). However, dew points are forecasted to remain very comfortable through at least Thursday. By the end of the week the upper ridge is progged to expand E-NE to the TN Valley and central Appalachians. This will likely lead to above average temps to return to the forecast area with highs in the upper 80s and possibly lower 90s. In addition, rain chances look meager through much of the week. The best days for rain chances look to be Friday and Saturday as a frontal passage approaches the area.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 100 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions continue through the 06z taf period. Clear skies continue through the morning. Winds have became light and variable inland. While along the coast winds continue to remain out of the NE around 10kt. Throughout the day VFR conditions are forecasted as high pressure dominated todays weather pattern. Skies are forecasted to remain mostly clear with winds continue to remain out of the NE between 5-10 kt before becoming light and variable again tonight.

Outlook: Dry weather continues through Sat with generally VFR conditions given high pressure over the region.

MARINE

As of 100 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- CAA continues tonight with enhanced N-NE winds and Small Craft Advisories in effect for all but the northern coastal waters and tidal rivers. - Sub-SCA conditions are forecast for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

A large (~1025mb) area of high pressure was centered over the Eastern Great Lakes this evening. Winds were generally N/NE 15-20 kt with gusts up to around 25 kt. Waves in the Ches Bay were 2-4 ft with seas 3-5 ft. Winds have diminished below 15-20 kt across the upper rivers. As such, have canceled SCAs there. Elsewhere, winds are expected to gradually become NE overnight as much drier air overspreads the the waters. A gradual decrease in speed expected late tonight, especially toward sunrise, with the latest guidance showing winds falling below SCA thresholds in the Ches Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound around sunrise. However, will let the overnight shift make the call on ending these headlines early. Seas will be slower to fall off than the winds overnight with 3-6 ft seas nearshore (highest across the southern coastal waters) and 4-7 ft in the 20-60nm zones likely. Elevated seas linger into the daylight hours of Tuesday across the southern coastal waters S of Cape Charles Light. High pressure then builds north of the area by Tuesday afternoon and evening with improving marine conditions expected for the remainder of the week and likely into the weekend as well.

Given the elevated onshore flow and nearshore waves, there is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches and a high risk rip current risk for the southern beaches on Tuesday. All beaches have a Moderate Risk on Wednesday as swell energy persists.

AKQ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.