Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty south-southwest winds will pick up across the forecast area on Tuesday, with High Wind Warnings in effect in the southwestern Great Basin and Wind Advisories elsewhere.

* Quiet weather returns mid-to-late week before the region gears up for the approach of another weather system over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Today through Sunday.

Today will be the warmest day of the forecast period with afternoon high temperatures around 10 degrees above seasonal normals. The ridge aloft will deamplify on Tuesday as a closed area of low pressure meanders inland. The primary impact of this weather system will be the strong gusty south-southwesterly winds on Tuesday. The High Wind Watch for Esmeralda and central Nye counties has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning and now includes Death Valley National Park, with 70-90 percent chances of seeing wind gusts at or in excess of 58 mph (with best chances in the higher terrain / mountains). Elsewhere across the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert, Wind Advisories are in effect on Tuesday with peak wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph. These advisories exclude eastern San Bernardino County and the lower Colorado River Valley, as those locations can expect gusts generally between 20 and 30 mph. The associated cold front will push through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, allowing for a 10 to 12 degree temperature drop. Finally, there is a 20-40 percent chance of light rain across the southern Great Basin as well as light snow above 6000 feet. Rainfall accumulations will range between 0.05 and 0.15 inches, with greater amounts further north and in the mountains. Snowfall accumulations in the Sierra Nevada will range 8 to 12 inches above 8500 feet.

Post-frontal west-northwesterly winds will continue in the western Mojave Desert on Wednesday, but currently look to remain sub- advisory. Meanwhile, modest ridging returns to the region through the remainder of the work week, allowing afternoon high temperatures to climb back to a few degrees above-normal. Uncertainty returns to the region over the weekend as a closed area of low pressure moves inland off the southern California coast.

AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package

Southeast winds this afternoon will gradually shift to more of a southerly direction early this evening with gusts 20-25 knots. These gusty winds will gradually diminish after 04z with speeds around 10 knots continuing through Tuesday morning. Stronger south winds will develop after 17z with gusts to around 25 knots, but those gusts will increase to around 35 knots after 22z. Areas of blowing dust with reduced visibilities will be possible during the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail with FEW-SCT clouds between 15-25kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...South winds around 15 knots and gusts to 20-25 knots are expected into this evening, diminishing after 04-05z. Exceptions to this include the northern Owens Valley/KBIH where gusty up-valley winds to 30-35 knots will continue into this evening before diminishing around 05z. Stronger south winds are expected to develop after 17z with gusts exceeding 30 knots. Strongest winds are expected near KBIH and across Esmeralda and central Nye counties where gusts are likely to exceed 40 knots. Areas of blowing dust with reduced visibilities will be possible during the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail with FEW- SCT clouds between 15-25kft.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.