Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Thunderstorms are expected across the region today and tonight. Heavy rain... strong downburst winds and hail will accompany the strongest storms.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue the next several days. While any thunderstorm will produce heavy rains, Saturday night is expected to have the greatest potential for excessive rainfall over a larger area. Flash flooding potential will exist with the storms. After the several rounds of rain and storms, the flood threat near creeks and streams will increase Saturday into Sunday.

- Rain and thunderstorm coverage will decrease on Sunday, but the chance of rainfall will continue, especially in southeast Oklahoma.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Thunderstorms will develop in northeast Oklahoma later this afternoon as a front moves southeast into the area. Deep-layer shear is expected to increase with time into the evening and support some potential for severe storms. Initial storm will have wind and hail potential. After a few hours the activity will tend to grow upscale into a line and continue southeast with occasional downbursts becoming the primary threat. The severe potential should diminish after late evening, but thunderstorms should continue across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. Quick heavy rains could lead to a local flash flood risk.

FYI... Tulsa touched the record high low temp this morning. Fort Smith and Fayetteville stayed above their records. But the final low for the day is expected to be recorded this evening at Tulsa and Fayetteville with the rain and storms. Timing for Fort Smith may be close.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Shower and storm activity should be ongoing in southeast Oklahoma on Friday morning, but then diminish with time. The next shot at storms develops Friday night across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as one or more nocturnal storm complexes move through region. The front that crosses our area tonight and Friday will redevelop north on Saturday and be the focus for widespread thunderstorm development late Saturday and Saturday evening in southern Kansas or northern Oklahoma. These storms will pose an excessive rain threat and some severe storm potential. Measurable rain will fall across most / all of our area from Saturday night into Sunday, with local amounts of 3 to 5 inches. A cluster analysis of model data suggests the max amounts may center around southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma. An isolated amount near 7 inches is not out of the question given the current data.

Temps will be down Friday, but rebound Saturday in most areas on Saturday. While conditions may stay below advisory levels, it will be hot and muggy for some.

The chance of rain may not completely end in our area until Monday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Convection will continue to spread east and southeast tonight as a frontal boundary sags southeast through the CWA. Within the convection, gusty winds, heavy rain and brief MVFR conditions could develop. Will continue with tempo groups for timing of greater potential for each TAF site. Behind the convection, a period of lingering showers are forecast while ceilings become scattered/broken mid and high clouds into Friday morning. There is potential in southeast Oklahoma of MVFR ceilings and additional showers holding into Friday morning as the boundary slows it momentum before retreating northward during the day. As the boundary lifts back over the CWA, again scattered mid and high clouds are forecast Friday afternoon. Winds through the period start out southerly, transition to northerly and then easterly tonight behind the boundary, and finally east to southeast once the front lifts back through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TSA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.