Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1221 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Moderate rain/low storm chances return to the forecast Tuesday and linger into Wednesday, mainly south of I-40.

- An unsettled weather pattern is expected starting Thursday and continuing into the upcoming weekend. Multiple opportunities for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall are expected.

SHORT TERM

(Through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Evening water vapor imagery continues to indicate a weak mid level wave tracking eastward out of the Southern Rockies and into the Southern Plains. This shortwave trough will drift across northern Texas during the day today, eventually becoming absorbed into the larger scale northwest flow aloft by Tuesday night. Moisture will increase ahead of the approaching wave, especially south of I-40, by Tuesday morning. This should be enough to result in the development of scattered showers with perhaps some isolated thunder potential near the Red River. Rain chances will primarily be confined to southeast Oklahoma through the day, though some spotty light showers could spread as far north as Highway 412 later in the day Tuesday into Tuesday night. Relatively weak deep layer flow along with very little if any instability will keep severe chances pretty much zero with this activity. Increasing cloud cover areawide will keep temperatures a little cooler than those seen Monday with locations south of I-40 generally staying in the low to mid 60s owing to the higher precipitation coverage. More spotty lingering showers could continue into Tuesday night as the trough axis remains in the vicinity. Precipitation amounts will generally remain light with some locally higher amounts possible near the Red River where any thunderstorms can develop.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Showers with an isolated thunderstorm or two linger into Wednesday morning before departing the area as mid level ridging shifts over the Southern Plains downstream of a deep upper trough moving inland across the Intermountain West. Another generally pleasant day will be in store on Wednesday before a more unsettled period arrives again to close out the week. The aforementioned upper through will eject out over the Plains on Thursday bringing increasing thunderstorm chances to the local region. A surface low will deepen over the High Plains with a sharpening dryline extending south out of southern Kansas through western Oklahoma. Guidance is in fairly good agreement showing that the main piece of jet energy associated with the upper trough will lift northeastward across Central Plains into the Midwest Region and thus more widespread thunderstorm potential will be confined north of the forecast area through the day Thursday. Low potential exists for a storm or two to initiate along the dryline in central Oklahoma Thursday afternoon as stronger height falls overspread the area and a secondary subtropical jet streak noses into the region. If this occurs, any storm that does develop will have the potential to be severe with all hazards possible while tracking toward eastern Oklahoma Thursday evening. Forecast soundings show most of the forecast area to remain substantially capped however, so chances remain very low for this scenario at this time.

Better thunderstorm chances will arrive Thursday night into Friday morning as a cold front pushes into the region. A line of showers and storms will likely move through during the overnight hours. While confidence is high that the strong frontal forcing can overcome the warm mid level temps and capping, it is still uncertain how robust the convection will be as it moves through the forecast area because of those limiting environmental factors. The dynamic environment will remain supportive of severe hazards however, with strong wind gusts the primary threat owing to the expected linear mode. If more surface based convection can develop, then increasing low level shear will also support some tornado potential along the leading edge. The forecast gets a little fuzzy heading into the weekend as the surface front stalls in the vicinity and near zonal flow aloft settles over much of the Southern Plains. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances will be mentioned through the weekend into early next week, with details to be refined in later forecasts. More severe and heavy rain potential could evolve over the area as well with multiple rounds of storms possible. Temperatures look to remain near seasonal normals through much of the extended period.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Ongoing VFR conditions will continue through the night however increasing low clouds are expected through the day. Ceilings will low into MVFR range first across SE OK where scattered light showers will be possible through the day. Lower ceilings expand northward into NE OK but will be slower to spread east into NW AR where VFR conditions will largely prevail through the forecast period. Once the lower ceilings arrive they are expected to persist through the remainder of the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TSA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.