Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm chances today into tonight (40-70%). Some of the storms likely will be severe and may produce flooding.

- Mild and dry June weather Sunday through Tuesday.

- Warmer Wednesday with the next notable chance for thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developed over east- central Kansas in recent hours with other isolated convection over northwest Kansas. Isentropic charts show broad but deep lift with some moisture present and little change in this regime into the middle of the day. MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg and effective shear around 40 knots will support some stronger storms early today, but the greater concern remains to be this afternoon and this evening. Most guidance warms the boundary layer enough to erode nearly all CIN over the bulk of the area by late afternoon with HREF mean SBCAPEs of 2000-3000 J/kg. Convergence along the front should be the main driver for ascent, though continued isentropic upglide and modest convergence downstream of surface low pressure to the west could also be enough to support convection. The NBM 10th to 90th percentile maximum temperature spreads notably are 15-20 degrees, likely due to different amounts of early-day convection with the 00Z ECMWF producing fairly widespread precip this morning. Uncertainty on how precipitation today and tonight transpires lingers and have trended PoPs to a short-term/NBM model blend and limited values to less than 80 percent. Deep-layer shear remains supportive of severe storms, but low-level flow remains modest. If the stronger CAPE values are realized, initial supercells may be the most concerning for any tornadic threat with 0-3 km shear of less than 20 knots this afternoon and evening. Precipitable water values are still progged to reach near 2 inches with HREF 90th percentile QPF values around 1.5 inches in the east with some spots of 3"+. Will keep the Flood Watch going despite some event evolution uncertainty with some potential for a few rounds of storms into the late evening especially in eastern areas.

Modified Canadian high pressure builds in Sunday into Monday for cooler and drier conditions. The next cold front looks to move through around Wednesday though thunderstorm potential along it is uncertain with 700 mb temps around 15 C.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Can't rule out isolated high-based thunderstorm activity through at least 13Z in isentropic lift. Greater chances should some along/ahead of a cold front after 20Z to around 01Z with gusty winds and heavy rain. VFR conditions follow on north winds.

TOP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ026-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040- KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.