Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 313 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the next week.

- Onshore flow will continue through the weekend and the first half of next week, keeping the highest storm chances over inland areas each day, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Through the weekend, a series of shortwaves will rotate through the mid-Atlantic Coast, bringing a cold front into the southeastern US but staying well north of Florida. This will shift the sub-tropical ridge axis into southern Florida, locking the forecast area into mainly westerly flow that will hold through the weekend and the first half of next week. Under this pattern, deep moisture will hold in place resulting in showers and thunderstorms developing each day during the early afternoon and building east into the interior through the rest of the afternoon and early evening before tapering off. Under westerly flow, the west coast sea breeze tends to clear out areas along the west coast before heavy rainfall can develop. As a result, although rain totals for the next 5 days are expected to be favorable over the interior, areas along the west coast are forecast to only see 5-day rain totals of less than half an inch.

During the second half of the week, the sub-tropical ridge will start to lift back north, allowing winds to turn to southwesterly and southerly. While this pattern could allow for rain coverage closer to the coast to increase, a slightly drier airmass is forecast to be filtering in by the end of the week, keeping overall rain totals relatively low.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions should hold through at least the morning. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, with the highest rain chances over southwest Florida around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD, and over the interior around KLAL. Thunderstorms should clear out by around 03z, with VFR conditions returning overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

High pressure will ridge south of the waters through the first half of next week, with mainly westerly flow continuing. Wind speeds will hold around 15 knots or less, with no headlines expected, however occasional thunderstorms could bring locally higher winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Deep moisture will hold over the area through at least the next week, with no concerns for low humidity. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop each day, mainly during the afternoon and early evening, with the highest rain chances inland from the west coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.