Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 220 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Above normal temps with heat indices reaching 100+ degrees in the afternoons continue through the week. - Increasing shower and storm chances expected through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 825 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Limited convection remains over WCFL this evening with a bit more robust convection ongoing over SWFL as boundary collisions over the past hour have sparked a cluster of storms over parts of eastern Charlotte and Lee counties. Storms should persist for another hour or so before a diminishing trend ensues into tonight. Current forecast grids capture the activity well with no changes needed.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 The surface ridge axis remains across north Florida today, with a light southeast flow continuing across the local area. This will allow the west coast sea breeze to develop and continue to push inland, reaching just east of the I-75 corridor. There will be a pretty typical scattering of storms through the rest of the day, but this area will be where the best rain chances reside before diminishing after dark. Tomorrow is more of a transition day as the surface high starts to shift south. This will give us a more westerly flow across the forecast area that continues through the weekend and into next week, marking a return to the pattern of early morning showers and storms over the Gulf that shift onshore and then eventually inland and over to the east coast by the afternoon and evening hours.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Blossoming convection near the SWFL terminals will keep TEMPO MVFR/LCL IFR possible for the next few hours before improving, then VFR across all terminals expected through tonight and Friday morning. Earlier convective development near Tampa Bay area terminals likely on Friday as flow becomes light to onshore, then pushing east of terminals by late afternoon. Slightly delayed convective onset for remaining terminals with convection developing in the afternoon, likely persisting into the evening before diminishing.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 High pressure will prevail with no headlines expected. Winds become west to southwest starting Friday and continuing through the weekend, with the best rain chances overnight into the morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 No fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative humidity values remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.