Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions over the waters into Wednesday.

- Hazardous fire weather conditions Tuesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) FEW-SCT clouds as VFR conditions continue with gusty northeast winds briefly diminishing overnight then increasingly gusty Tue aft 14Z.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

A cold front has moved south just out of the forecast area this afternoon. A few isolated showers linger in the vicinity of the front, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy conditions present throughout the area. The pressure gradient has tightened up causing a gusty northeast wind. Dry air will continue to filter in behind the front, increasing fire weather dangers for tomorrow as winds stay elevated. Slightly cooler air will also filter in, dropping low temperatures back down to the upper 40s and low 50s for northern counties. High temperatures, will stay near normal for this time of year. This pattern holds through mid week, before moisture begins to creep back into the forecast as the flow switches to more south easterly instead of easterly. Rain chances will increase slightly as we head into the weekend, though still remain very low.

MARINE

Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Hazardous marine conditions expected for the next few days as winds and seas remain at advisory levels. Winds will briefly decrease below advisory levels Tuesday afternoon, but will bounce back to advisory levels Tuesday evening. By Wednesday afternoon winds and seas will begin to decrease.

FIRE WEATHER

Red Flag warnings and fire weather concerns remain elevated as dry fuels and combine with the dry and windy conditions, warranting a red flag warning for TUE afternoon. Winds drop below 15 mph Tuesday night. Moisture begins to increase by mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TBW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Levy- Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.