Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 641 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- There is a medium (40 to 60%) chance of needing Heat Advisories for heat indices at or above 108 degrees across most of our Florida counties into southern Georgia on Saturday. Those who are sensitive to heat or do not have access to adequate cooling or hydration could be impacted by the heat.

- Isolated showers and storms are forecast today and Friday with more widely scattered showers and storms forecast over the weekend into early next week.

- A High Risk of rip currents is forecast to return to our area beaches today and linger into the weekend. It is strongly discouraged to enter the surf on high risk days. Please heed the beach flags and advice of local officials.

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The heat is on the next couple of days. Afternoon temperatures will soar into the middle 90s today, Friday, and Saturday with overnight lows in the middle 70s. So there's not much relief from the heat at night either. Slightly "cooler" temperatures return Sunday into early next week as they return closer to normal, or the lower 90s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is in the forecast, mainly along the sea breeze in Florida, today and Friday before better shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday and beyond.

The building heat is thanks to an H5 ridge along the northern Gulf coast that nudges overhead. Combine that with decent surface moisture (dew points) and heat indices will be between 98 to 105 today, 100 to 108 Friday, and 103 to 110 Saturday. As a result, the chances for portions of our area needing a Heat Advisory (heat indices at or above 108 degrees) continues to increase, especially for Saturday. One may also be needed Sunday, but there is some uncertainty as to how cloudy and stormy it'll be as the H5 ridge begins to break down as a trough moves through the Great Lakes region. With the ridge breaking down, rain chances are forecast to increase with temperatures returning closer to normal Sunday and early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A few showers and storms will be possible across the FL Big Bend and south central GA this afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in the taf for now.

MARINE

Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The Bermuda High continues to bring light to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds across the northeastern Gulf through Thursday. It slides closer to the Bahamas Friday, bringing more westerly winds to our waters through the weekend into early next week. Seas will generally be 1 to 2 feet through Thursday before increasing slightly to 1 to 3 feet as westerly winds develop Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Hot and mostly dry weather prevails through Friday. Afternoon temperatures will generally be in the lower to middle 90s with a low, less than 30%, chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm along the sea breeze in our Florida Districts. Heat indices will be approaching 100 to 105 degrees Friday and slightly higher for Saturday. MinRH will generally drop to between 40 to 50 percent each afternoon through Saturday before increasing slightly Sunday and Monday. Rain chances will also increase Saturday afternoon through Monday as moisture returns to the region. Easterly to southerly Transport and surface winds are forecast today before turning more westerly Friday and beyond.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

No significant flash or riverine flooding is expected the next several days. Locally heavy downpours are expected within any showers and storms that develop, especially Saturday into early next week, with 1" to 2" of rain occurring very quickly.

Severe to exceptional drought continues for areas generally east of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers as these areas missed out on the most beneficial recent rains. The drought features long term impacts that are affecting rivers, lakes, and ponds that are still below normal despite recent rains. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.