Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 228 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Elevated to near-critical fire concerns remain today due to low humidity and very dry fuels. While concerns will decrease some through the week, please follow the advice of local burn bans and officials as conditions are still supportive of wildfires.

- Rain chances return this weekend but sufficient rainfall amounts to make significant improvements to the drought are not currently expected.

SHORT TERM

(Today and Tonight) Issued at 228 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

High pressure continues to retreat to the east with south and southeasterly flow expected to prevail through the day. Winds will be around 10 mph but a few gusts to 15 mph are possible, especially across the Panhandle where the seabreeze will make steady inland progress today. Low relative humidities (around 25-35%) and elevated fire danger are expected again this afternoon given dry fuels on the ground and forecast humidities. Some of the moisture return on the western periphery of the high pressure across the Panhandle could help generate a few isolated showers this afternoon, but aside from that, no rainfall is expected. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s.

Tonight, moisture return continues and it's possible patchy fog develops across portions of the Panhandle, but confidence was too low to warrant mention in the forecast grids for tonight.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 228 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Low-level moisture return continues through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as the surface high pressure continues to move east, and several week upper level impulses move across the forecast area. Some of these, along with heating of the day, could help generate a few isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially late in the weekend and early next week. However, the upper level pattern still remains highly uncertain and the more convective nature of shower develop late this weekend and early next week doesn't really bring promising signs for significant widespread rainfall. However, local amounts of 1 to 2 inches can't be ruled out in areas that are fortunate to receive showers/storms. High temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s for much of the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Another round of prevailing VFR conds expected with thick upper clouds. Light to calm winds overnight give way to increasing southerlies late morning and an afternoon seabreeze. The latter may squeeze out isol'd showers invof of ECP/DHN/TLH. However, confidence was too low to explicitly mention in this TAF package. Lastly, skies may be hazy from ongoing wildfires in Clinch & Echols County, GA, but much of the smoke has been well above the surface.

MARINE

Issued at 228 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Gentle to moderate southeast breezes will prevail through Thursday, as high pressure sets up well east of the Georgia coast, before shifting to a more southerly orientation late Friday night to early Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 228 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions still remain today despite weaker transport winds, primarily due to another round of low afternoon RHs (around 25-35%). Dispersions will be lower than the last few days, but there will still be a few locations that reach high dispersion criteria. Afternoon minimum RHs will slowly rise each day this week as southerly flow establishes, acting to gradually ease the fire weather concerns. By the end of the week, increasing rain chances are introduced into the forecast with a chance of a widespread wetting rain this weekend. However, these will also introduce a chance of thunderstorms. Expect a seabreeze to develop each day and push inland through the afternoon and evenings.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 228 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Outside of a low-end chance of some light seabreeze-driven showers for our southwestern-most counties, rainfall is not expected through Thursday and thus ongoing drought will continue or worsen through then. More notable chances of precipitation start to enter the forecast this weekend and stay elevated through the end of the forecast period. Still, current forecast amounts do not appear significant at this time to bring much (if any) drought improvement.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.