Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- There is a low (20 to 30%) chance on Friday afternoon and a medium (40 to 60%) chance on Saturday afternoon of needing Heat Advisories for heat indices at or above 108 degrees across most of our Florida counties into southern Georgia. Those who are sensitive to heat or do not have access to adequate cooling or hydration could be impacted by the heat.

- Isolated showers and storms are forecast today and Friday with more widely scattered showers and storms forecast over the weekend into early next week.

- A High Risk of rip currents is forecast to return to our area beaches today and linger into the weekend. It is strongly discouraged to enter the surf on high risk days. Please heed the beach flags and advice of local officials.

SHORT TERM

(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mid level ridging continues across the region and with relatively dry mid levels as well, the light SE surface flow regime is struggling to generate much in the way of showers and thunderstorms off the sea breeze today. Most of the storms have been confined to the SE Florida Big Bend and that is expected to continue throughout the afternoon hours and end shortly after sunset.

Friday is expected to be similar to today except warmer. Guidance has indicated for a couple of days that Friday won't be as warm as Saturday, but a few models are suggesting that high temperatures on Friday could reach into the upper 90s, combining with humid conditions to push heat indices near or just above heat advisory criteria (108 degrees). There's about a 20 to 30 percent chance of this scenario unfolding, as the bulk of the guidance keeps high temperatures in the mid 90s. Did nudge the high temperature forecast a degree or so higher to account for this possibility and future shifts can evaluate whether a heat advisory for Friday will ultimately be necessary.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Saturday could be the warmest day in the forecast period if convection does not become as expansive as about 40 percent of the guidance members suggest. The operational GFS and many of its ensembles hold onto the ridge over the region through the day on Saturday largely suppressing convection, allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 90s. The 00z and 12z Euro guidance weakens the 500 mb ridge by mid afternoon Saturday and convective coverage increases. There is some potential that even if the Euro and associated model solutions verify that heat advisory conditions could still be met as the flow pattern in these models would favor a late start (after 18z) to storms along the sea breeze, thus allowing for sufficient heating to produce heat indices above 108 degrees. Nonetheless, it is interesting that the 12z Euro MOS shows warmer temperatures at TLH on Friday than on Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, there is more consensus that the ridge will break down as a trough moves through the Ohio River Valley. An additional shortwave moving through the broad scale trough will push a frontal boundary into the southeast by Monday, further enhancing rain chances. As a result, PoPs will be on the increase by Sunday through the end of the period as forecast maxTs decrease.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions with light winds are expected to prevail at all terminals through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The Bermuda High continues to bring light to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds across the northeastern Gulf through today. It slides closer to the Bahamas Friday, bringing more westerly winds to our waters through the weekend into early next week. Seas will generally be 1 to 2 feet through today before increasing slightly to 1 to 3 feet as westerly winds develop Friday. As a frontal system approaches late in the weekend, stronger southwesterly to westerly flow will develop with seas building to near 4 feet well offshore.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Hot and mostly dry weather prevails through Friday. Afternoon temperatures will generally be in the middle 90s with less than a 30%, chance for showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze in our Florida Districts. Heat indices will be approaching 103 to 107 degrees Friday and slightly higher for Saturday. MinRH will generally drop to between 40 to 50 percent each afternoon through Saturday before increasing slightly Sunday and Monday. Rain chances will also increase Saturday afternoon through Monday as moisture returns to the region. Easterly to southerly Transport and surface winds are forecast today before turning more westerly Friday and beyond.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

No significant flash or riverine flooding is expected the next several days. Locally heavy downpours are expected within any showers and storms that develop, especially Saturday into early next week, with 1" to 2" of rain occurring very quickly.

Severe to exceptional drought continues for areas generally east of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers as these areas missed out on the most beneficial recent rains. The drought features long term impacts that are affecting rivers, lakes, and ponds that are still below normal despite recent rains. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.