Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased chances of showers and thunderstorms, from north to south, Sunday through Monday. Marginal (5 percent) to Slight (15 percent) risk for excessive rainfall and flooding.

- Cooler temperatures first part of next week (Sunday into Tuesday), with hotter temperatures returning Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Upper level high pressure in control for today and tomorrow with hot and buggy conditions prevailing. With temperatures rising well into the 90s, perhaps pushing near 100 for areas northwest of Abilene, heat index values will soar into the 100-105 range. May briefly hit Heat Advisory criteria but looks like it would be limited in area and for a short amount of time, so will not issue the advisory quite yet.

May see a few isolated storms off to the northwest across the South Plains as a dryline develops across the area, but do not expect any of this activity to push far enough east and/or southeast to make it into West Central Texas. Will give the next shift something to monitor however just in case.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Weak ridge aloft builds back in for Friday and Saturday. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the Big Country north of I-20 on Friday, near the remnant boundary. Highs Saturday are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s, but a few locations in the Big Country may reach 100. Somewhat breezy south winds are anticipated on Saturday.

A shift in the pattern is expected to bring increased rain chances, and cooler temperatures for the first part of next week. With an upper ridge building over the eastern Pacific and a broad upper trough over the northern and central Plains across the Midwest and Great Lakes, the ridge over Texas will be suppressed to the south. A couple of shortwaves are forecast to move southeast across the Red River Valley and the northern half of Texas, and a cold front will gradually push south across the area Sunday and Monday. This will bring an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms from north to south across the area. Moderate instability progged ahead of the front but effective bulk shear will be weak to marginal. Cannot rule out the possibility of a few strong to severe storms with strong, gusty winds, hail and lightning the main hazards. A rather moist airmass is progged with precipitable water values 1.5 to 2 inches Sunday, and 1.75 to 2.1 inches Monday. Will have some threat for flooding with heavy rainfall and slow-moving convection. The area will have increased cloud cover and temperatures will be cooler behind the front, especially on Monday. Highs Monday should be confined to the 80s and some locations may not reach 80. Some rain chance lingers into Tuesday mainly for the area south of I-20.

Indications are for hotter and drier conditions to redevelop Wednesday and continue to a greater extent Thursday, as a ridge aloft expands from the southwestern states east into Texas.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

MVFR ceilings are again expected to develop in the early morning hours. Cigs will scatter out by the late morning with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter. Winds will continue out of the south and be gusty in the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SJT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.