Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased chances of showers and thunderstorms, from north to south, Sunday through Monday. Marginal (5 percent) to Slight (15 percent) risk for excessive rainfall and flooding.

- Cooler temperatures first part of next week (Sunday into Tuesday), with hotter temperatures returning Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Hot and muggy conditions continue across West Central Texas this afternoon. Initial surface cold front has sagged south into the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma and will continue to move south into the afternoon. CAMs continue to show convection developing along this boundary later today and this evening, with the convection sagging southeast towards the northern Big Country overnight. Still a question how much will survive into Haskell and Throckmorton but overall 20-30 POPs seems reasonable at this moment. Whats left of the frontal boundary or an outflow boundary will sag towards I-20 on Friday, and may be able to generate more isolated convection around Sweetwater or Abilene Friday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Whats left of the initial boundary will dissipate, with the stronger cold front and a developing upper level trough over the PLains arriving Sunday into Monday. Right now, appears the front will make it into the Big Country before sunset Sunday evening, with the front spreading south across the remainder of West Central Texas by around sunrise Monday morning. Models still have their differences on how widespread convection may be, but most do show at least scattered showers and storms developing behind the front for Sunday evening into Monday morning, and then redeveloping Monday afternoon with a little more daytime heating.

Between the front and more cloud cover, will certainly be cooler with highs on Monday and Tuesday mainly in the 80s. Probably need to enjoy those temperatures while we can, with the upper level ridge building back across the Southern Plains for mid to late next week. Model blends are showing temperatures climbing well above the 100 degree mark, and if these longer range models are right, we will be looking at our first widespread Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Warnings for the summer across the area. Some of this will absolutely depend on how much rain falls across the area Sunday and Monday so that will be worth watching as well.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Expect VFR conditions for the next several hours. Expect stratus to develop late tonight and Friday moring with MVFR ceilings at most of the terminals. The winds will be from the south with a few gusts to 20 knots this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SJT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.