Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool temperatures and cloudy skies will linger in our area this afternoon into Wednesday.

- Considerably warmer temperatures are expected in the mid-to- late part of this week.

UPDATE

Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Added in patchy fog after midnight and early morning.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Showers which were over our far eastern counties early this morning have moved away to the east, but widespread cloud cover and cool temperatures remain over our area this afternoon. This cloud cover will persist over our area tonight and Wednesday. Some patchy mist/fog may develop overnight and early Wednesday morning in portions of our southern and eastern counties. With southeast to south winds tonight, not much of a temperature dropoff is expected and overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s. On Wednesday, south winds will increase and become somewhat breezy as a lee surface trough develops to our west and the pressure gradient tightens. Western and northwestern parts of our area should have some decrease in cloud cover by late afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer than today with afternoon highs expected to range from the upper 70s/around 80 in most of our southern and east-central counties, to the lower to mid 80s in the Big Country and much of the Concho Valley and Crockett County. The warmest highs (mid 80s) will be in northwestern parts of the Concho Valley and Big Country.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

We remain under the influence of higher pressure aloft through mid week. However, a trough eventually develops across the northwestern U.S. towards the end of the week. This will leave us in zonal flow aloft for the weekend. Afterwards, a few minor disturbances aloft will pass across the region on Sunday through early next week. Minimal (20% or less) chances for rain will be seen through the next several days. Expect temperatures to warm into the 90s by this weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings fall to IFR this evening, with LIFR possible and light fog early Wednesday morning, particularly at KBBD and KJCT. Ceiling lift to MVFR late morning/early afternoon and VFR mid afternoon. Southeast wind 5 to 10 KTS shift south 8 to 13 KTS late morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SJT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.