Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe will be possible across most of the Four State Region Today through at least this evening.

- We begin to dry out late on Monday with a warming trend in the mid to late week timeframe.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Complex forecast today through tonight which could result in a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall but the ingredients for this need to come together at the right time and the timing and location of all this is far from certain.

Those complications begin currently with a complex of strong storms across portions of Central and Southern Oklahoma which has shown a tendency over the last hour or two to weaken in intensity but expand in coverage. Some high res progs and CAM output are latching on to this complex and forcing it into our region overnight towards the predawn hours Sunday with a severe wind and/or hail threat. Other solutions are decaying this complex as it nears our northwest zones and this seems to be the more plausible solution given that the stout moisture axis in the 700-850mb layer is not there overnight like Friday Night, not to mention we lack the deep layer shear in the 0-6km layer we had last night.

Having said all this, we are currently in northwest flow aloft and this type of weather pattern is always the great equalizer when it comes to proving one wrong just when you think you have a good handle on the above listed ingredients. The current shortwave embedded in this flow aloft is subtle but the one that will be moving out of the OK/TX Pnhdle appears to be much more substantial and is poised to possibly impact our region by late morning but especially during the afternoon and evening hours tonight. The million dollar question is will there be enough of the current complex moving into our region during the morning hours today to disturb the atmosphere enough such that the worst of a severe weather threat and impacts may be west of our region. SPC's Sunday Convective Outlook hints at this with more of an Enhanced Risk of Severe storms west of our region and this appears to be where the best instability axis will exist today in advance of the upper forcing associated with the disturbance embedded in this northwest flow aloft pattern. Still believe we could see a damaging wind and/or a hail threat later today/this evening but the bigger threat does appear to be to our west during this timeframe.

The longwave trough moves ovhd late tonight and through the day Monday with the trough departing our region Monday Night and that will begin a drying trend that should last most if not all of the upcoming work week. A strong ridge axis will take the place of the longwave trough across the Tx Hill Country and this feature will slowly expand eastward through the week thus, the warming trend from day to day through the week.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

For the 10/06Z TAFs, area terminals are seeing CIGs tank to IFR and LIFR levels, accompanied by periodic VSBY reductions, which will likely become more widespread as winds become nearly calm towards daybreak. Given the brevity of fog thusfar, accounting for impacts with TEMPO groups. Will amend as needed. Meanwhile, storms in southeastern Oklahoma and north Texas look to enter our northwestern airspace in the next hour or so. Impacts will depend on how well these storms hold together, and if they do, most likely will affect KTXK and the I-30 corridor. Further thunderstorms are possible late in this forecast period, into the morning hours and again in the afternoon. Winds will be light to nearly calm overnight, remaining light and variable into the daytime hours, at maximum sustained speeds of about 5 kts.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Today through at least this evening. Therefore, spotter activation will likely be needed during this timeframe.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV 83 65 76 58/ 60 60 40 0 MLU 85 65 78 57/ 60 60 40 0 DEQ 78 58 76 50/ 70 60 40 0 TXK 82 62 76 54/ 70 60 40 0 ELD 82 60 75 52/ 60 60 40 0 TYR 83 64 75 58/ 60 60 40 0 GGG 83 64 76 57/ 60 60 40 0 LFK 86 67 79 61/ 40 60 40 0

SHV WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.