Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Roller coaster of temperatures to start the week with much warmer temperatures during the second half of the week.

- Daily rain chances return by Tuesday and continue through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Some might call this morning a chilly one, as temperatures start out in the mid 40s across the region. Afternoon highs today will range from the lower to upper 70s, with a few locations in north central Louisiana flirting with the 80 degree mark. Nonetheless, still pleasant for this time of the year. An upper-level disturbance will move across Texas on Monday night and will bring a return of precipitation chances, mainly across our western zones. With the rain and cloud cover expected on Tuesday, we will see a wide variety of afternoon temperatures. Those with precipitation and cloud cover, mainly our western half of the forecast area, will see highs in the mid to upper 60s, while the eastern half will range from the lower to upper 70s. Not expecting much in the way of rain amounts on Tuesday, but the higher amounts will be across our far western zones from Wood County south through Cherokee County. While there will be a brief break in precipitation chances Tuesday evening into early Tuesday night, they will begin to increase early Wednesday morning as the aforementioned disturbance pushes east. Rain chances could extend further to the east with this push.

Thursday rain chances will exist, but will be much lower than on Tuesday and Wednesday. In addition, temperatures will begin to increase, with lower to mid 80s returning to most of the area. Watching the potential for some more widespread showers and thunderstorms possible on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Models are still showing some major disagreement in timing, location and intensity but it will be worth watching how models trend over the next couple days. SPC did drop a D6 (Friday) Slight Risk across much of our region. I wouldn't say confidence is high in this potential, but something that will need to be monitored nonetheless so continue to check the forecast for updates. /33/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 653 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR this cycle in the wake of cool high pressure. A weak disturbance over Texas will pump in the high and eventually mid clouds during the day and could bring rain nearby early tomorrow with VCSH at KTYR, but more likely diurnally driven impacts over E TX, spreading areawide by midweek. Until then light E winds are veering to S/SE 5-15KT for today and back near 5KT and below with some calm well after sundown. /24/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.