Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing chances for severe thunderstorms as early as late afternoon but more likely this evening through the overnight hours. Several rounds/clusters of thunderstorms are possible. Thunderstorms hazards include potential for hail up to lime size (2 in diameter), damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and tornadoes. Highest severe potential is along and north of Interstate 44 however uncertainty remains with storm mode.

- Severe thunderstorm redevelopment likely Monday afternoon and evening for locations east of Highway 65, with a greater Enhanced (3 of 5) Risk east of Highway 63. Large hail to the size of baseballs, damaging winds to 70 mph, and tornadoes are all possible.

- Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in far south-central Missouri. Large hail is the main hazard.

- Localized flooding may occur with any training storms this weekend into Tuesday. A corridor of slightly higher flooding potential could develop along and north of Highway 54 tonight into Monday.

- Mostly dry with cooler than average temperatures Wednesday and onward.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a weak shortwave moving through northern Kansas with stronger energy seen moving through Colorado and New Mexico. The synoptic pattern remains very complex with a nearly stationary north to south front across central Kansas. The warm front with significantly higher surface dews/instability was beginning to lift north through southern Oklahoma. The 12z KSGF sounding, meso trends and satellite data still supports a capped airmass across southwest Missouri with limited low level cloud cover. In response, temps have warmed into the middle and upper 70s. As of early afternoon, storms have formed across central Kansas and were likely elevated in nature mostly, however the southern end is becoming more surface based.

Thunderstorm Potential This evening - Overnight/Monday Morning: A messy and complicated forecast exists with the potential for multiple clusters/rounds of storms. There seems to a growing trend that as stronger lift moves east this afternoon, storms across central Kansas will continue to move east and expand in coverage and intensity. These storms could clip locations along and north of Highway 54 by late afternoon and evening. Large hail to 2 inches in diameter is the most likely hazard given the elevated nature. If they become more surface based then the damaging wind threat would increase.

The other focus area to watch this evening will be across southern Kansas into Oklahoma, especially near the triple point as that warm front will continue to lift north. The low level jet will continue to increase this evening into the overnight hours and should force the development of supercells. CAMS suggest that these could congeal into clusters and move northeast into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri through the overnight hours. Instability and wind shear will actually increase further through the overnight (especially elevated CAPE), therefore large hail to 2 inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts to 70mph will be the most likely hazards. The tornado threat remains uncertain. Any supercells that can remain close to that warm front (which will be moving towards the area) will have the potential for a tornado, with locations across southeast Kansas and western Missouri in a conditional intensity 1 category for strong tornadoes, if a tornado where to form. Forecast STP (significant tornado parameter) values across the west look to get to 1-3, therefore we will need to monitor the environment closely tonight.

With lift continuing overnight and the mean flow out of the west/southwest, we could see multiple rounds of thunderstorms, especially along and north of Interstate 44. The further south of I-44 it remains uncertain how much we will see. If the warm front is slower to move in then storms could move in further south than forecast. This will likely be an evolving situation with additional updates likely through this evening.

Flooding Potential: Some of the more recent CAMS suggest a corridor of training thunderstorms along and north of Highway 54. Confidence is low on how this will evolve however if this does occur, a corridor of 2-3 inches of rainfall could occur which would cause flooding. Will continue to monitor this potential this afternoon and any potential need for any short fuse Flood Watches.

Thunderstorm Potential Monday Afternoon/Evening: Thunderstorm clusters may be ongoing Monday morning, especially north of I-44. This creates a complicated thermodynamic environment for afternoon/evening storm redevelopment. There is enough consensus in 12z HREF data to support thunderstorm redevelopment as the strong lift moves into Missouri, however it should be noted that most of the strongest lift will be north of the area. Forecast soundings for Springfield and points east for the afternoon hours support a very unstable and highly sheared airmass. Strong southerly winds with gusts to 35mph will pump in surface dews in the 60s with high temps in the 80s. Mean SB CAPEs may reach 3000j/kg with 0-6km shear of 50-60kts. Forecast large hail parameters from the RAP suggest values as high as 20 which would allow for hail larger than baseballs. The low level flow helicity not be particularly strong in the afternoon with the surface winds out of the southwest however it does increase in the evening. Therefore the tornado threat should increase as storms move east, especially east of Highway 63 where strong tornadoes are possible if storms don't congeal and SRH is high enough.

There remains uncertainty how early and how far west storms redevelop. Most guidance does not show storms along or west of I-49 however most seem to want to develop them near the Highway 65 corridor (in the 3-6pm window) and then really increase the strength as they go east. This will be a rapidly evolving situation across the eastern half of the area with additional updates likely.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Additional Storm Potential Tuesday: There is a continued trend that highlights the front lifting north Tuesday, back into southern Missouri. Additional energy will move into the area and could force another round of thunderstorms. Most of the storms may remain elevated north of the front with large hail the main concern. However if the front lifts any farther north (closer to I-44), then we will need to monitor for additional hazards as storms could try to become more surface based.

Pattern Change Mid/Late Week: A split flow pattern then develops for mid to late week with northwest flow aloft over the area and a cut off low south of California. While confidence in rain chances in this pattern is low, confidence is high that temperatures will drop back to or perhaps below average with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

For the 06z TAFS, ongoing severe storm should remain south of the SGF area and likely stay north of the BBG terminal. Have gone with a a couple hour prob30 group for BBG to account for a potential further southward drift or any development along the outflow boundary. There is a weaker storm at JLN as of 0520z that should move out of JLN by 06z. Gusty south winds are expected today ahead of a cold front which will push through later in the day. Atmosphere will become primed for additional severe storms as the front shifts east across the area. Expecting more scattered coverage so have gone with a prob30 group at the TAF sites (SGF/BBG). Additional development is expected to remain east of the JLN terminal this afternoon/evening. Expecting VFR conditions outside of any convection, but will have MVFR or brief IFR within the convection.

SGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.